I wrote this up four years ago, but hearing the case referenced earlier today prompted me to post this and hopefully put the matter to bed.
The purpose of this post is to use the facts to explain Christina Gutierrez's strategy--particularly why she did not rely on the letters or witness testimony of Asia McClain. Her instincts were spot on and the claim that Adnan Syed received ineffective assistance of counsel is a travesty. Apologies for the length, but if you followed this case, I promise that you will find this worthwhile.

• Was the prosecution's case full of holes? Yes.
• Did the State prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Adnan Syed murdered Hae Min Lee? Well, the jury believed that they did.
• Should Adnan have been found guilty based on the case made by the State? Probably, but if Jay’s testimony was tossed out on appeal, no.
• Did religious/cultural discrimination play a factor in Adnan's conviction? Probably.
• Did Adnan's attorney, Christina Gutierrez screw up? On the surface it may appear so, but no, she did not.
• Was Adnan Syed involved in the murder of Hae Min Lee (HML)? YES, but not because of any evidence presented by the prosecution. The facts and analysis below show how the most compelling evidence proving Adnan Syed's guilt was not provided by the State. It was provided by his strongest advocate, Rabia Chaudry, who doggedly pursued the Asia alibi.

The March 1, 1999 letter from Asia McClain--incorrectly regarded by many as exculpatory--actually implicates Adnan and proves that he played a role in HML's murder.
The greatest injustice exposed through the Serial Podcast was not what happened to Adnan Syed, but how Christina Gutierrez was portrayed. Based solely on her grossly misinterpreted handling of the Asia McClain letters, every move that Gutierrez made makes perfect sense and her strategy was sound. To best understand the case, we should start with a timeline. There are a lot of timelines out there, but they contain partial or extraneous information. The details of whether there was a meeting at Best Buy, who made the Nisha call, etc. are not included because they are not necessary to prove Adnan’s guilt or the effectiveness of Gutierrez as his counsel.
1998
Early December: Adnan and Hae break up.
Mid-December: Adnan and Don look at Hae's car at her job at Lenscrafters. Adnan has no problem with Don and gets along fine, but Don is only Hae's coworker at this time (relevance: motive).
1999
January 1: Don and Hae start dating.
January 12: Adnan purchases his cell phone (first time he owned one) and starts using it that evening.
January 12: Hae spends evening with Don.
January 12: Adnan calls Hae three times between 11:27 PM and 12:35 AM.
January 13: Hae is killed and buried between 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM (the one consistent thread in Jay's multiple statements and testimony, also Adnan's cell was pinging Leakin Park burial site between 7 PM and 8 PM).
January 13: Adnan called by police at 6:24 PM asking if he knows Hae's whereabouts and speaks with them until about 6:30 PM (cell pings tower near Cathy's house).
January 13: Between 7:09 PM and 8:05 PM all four calls to/from Adnan's cell ping Leakin Park towers near Hae's burial site.
Jan 13 to Feb 9: Police question Adnan and Don multiple times pursuant to investigation of Hae's disappearance. Police do not assume anything about if/when Hae could have been killed (relevance: timeline not yet established by police).
February 9: Hae's body found by Mr. S. Medical examiner determines that Hae was strangled, but cannot determine when she was killed (relevance: timeline not yet established by police).
February 12: Anonymous call to cops telling them to look at Hae's ex. Anonymous tipster calls again telling cops to talk to Yasser Ali who might know more.
February 15: Police speak with Yasser who says he knows nothing (relevance: Goes without saying that Yasser tells his friend Adnan that the cops are investigating him and Adnan likely starts establishing his Asia alibi).
February 16-25: Police subpoena Adnan's cell records, identify the numbers called and see that the most frequently called number was Jenn (Jay's friend)
February 26: Police try to contact Jenn and she says it's not a good time.
February 26: Jenn goes to Jay and tells him that the police tried to question her about Hae. According to Jenn's story, Jay tells her what to say to police about the murder and tells her send the police to him (relevance: Jay knows its a question of time before police connect him with the calls and knows that he needs to get ahead of the story).
February 26: Jenn talks to the police (goes alone), but says that she knows nothing (relevance: Contrary to Jenn's story, Jay likely told Jenn to stall while he figures out what she should tell the cops and gives her full account the next day after Jay puts together his version of events).
February 26: Police speak with Adnan (relevance: Adnan by now certainly knows he needs an alibi, but police do not have a time line yet).
February 27: Jenn speaks with police again (with her mom and attorney present). This time she tells the police that Jay told her that Adnan strangled Hae. No timeline established although she says that Jay was at her house between 3:45 PM and 4:15 PM on Jan 13.
February 27: Police speak with Adnan (probably more aggressively in view of Jenn's statement)
February 27: Jay sweating bullets all day at his job at the adult video store waiting for police to contact him and wondering if Adnan got his version of the story to the police first. Police have Jay come in for questioning for the first time (relevance: Jay is not fearful of Adnan physically doing something to him. He is scared that Adnan will throw him under the bus. Jay is definitely not scared--as Rabia Chaudry and the Innocence Project allege--that some random rapist/murderer who was released from prison less than two weeks earlier to whom Jay has no connection is making Jay help cover his tracks).
February 28: Later the same night he was brought in by the cops, Jay gives up Adnan and provides the general timeline that establishes that Hae was killed and buried between 2:15 and 8 PM (consistent with his subsequent statements and testimony). This is the first time the police have a timeline for Hae's murder and burial. This timeline is not yet publicly available, so as far as the public knows, Hae was killed and buried some time between January 13 and February 9.
February 28: Adnan arrested for Hae's murder (this is a Sunday)
March 1: A day after Adnan is arrested, the first Asia letter sent, She states that she can account for some of Adnan's "unwitnessed, unaccountable time" between 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM on January 13. The ink is not yet dry on Jay's non-public statement. The letter was written before the police start to even check whether Adnan has an alibi.
March 2: Second Asia letter reiterating that she can account for Adnan's time (does not provide a time range in second letter). Asks why he has not yet told police about this.
March 31: Adnan's bail hearing where he is represented by two attorneys (Gutierrez not yet involved. Nothing in the record indicates that Adnan showed the Asia letters to these two attorneys.
After March 31: Christina Gutierrez hired to defend Adnan and at some point before the first trial is told by Adnan about the Asia letters.
July 7: Gutierrez files a demand letter with the court complaining that the prosecution had not provided info on when HML was killed and that “Defendant can’t possibly mount a defense or determine if an alibi disclosure is needed without being on notice of the alleged time of death.” (relevance: THIS IS KEY TO UNDERSTANDING WHY GUTIERREZ DID NOT USE ASIA--More than four months after the Asia letters, Adnan was still not told of the State's timeline, but Asia somehow used her fortune teller skills to identify the precise time for which Adnan needed an alibi).
September 7: Jay enters plea deal that is contingent upon Jay telling truth. If his testimony is proven to be false, State could bring any charge against Jay including murder.
2000
February 18: Gutierrez learns for the first time almost six weeks into the second trial and after the State rests that the prosecutor arranged for Jay's free private defense attorney.
February 25: Adnan found guilty
June 6: Adnan sentenced to life plus 30
July 6: Jay sentenced to probation (under deal was facing max 5 years)
​
The way alibis typically work: a suspect is questioned by the police based on when they believe the crime was committed. The suspect is asked to account for his time and if anyone could confirm the suspect's story that he was somewhere else at the time the crime was committed. If the suspect has an alibi, the police investigate whether the alibi checks out. Adnan was arrested on Feb 28. Before the cops or prosecution even questioned Adnan about his whereabouts on January 13, Asia went ahead and provided him with an alibi within 24 hours of his arrest.
The most important feature of the above timeline is that before Jay's statements, neither the police nor the public were operating under the assumption that Hae was killed and buried between 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM on January 13. Some thought she was with Don. Some thought she went to California to see her father. Gutierrez herself argued at trial that Hae could have been killed Jan 13 or Jan 14 or Jan 15, etc. At the time Adnan was arrested, all that was known was that HML was last seen on January 13th and that she was killed and buried some time between January 13th and February 9th. HML could have been stuffed in the trunk of her car alive by Jay on January 13 and killed the next day or the day after that. If Adnan was charged with HML's kidnapping, an alibi for January 13 would have relevance, but he was not. He was charged with murder, the timing of which was not known to the public or an innocent man until AFTER March 1, 1999. The only evidence establishing the January 13 timeline of Hae's murder and burial is Jay's testimony, which was unknown to the public as of March 1, 1999.
Nothing in the record indicates that Adnan told the police about Asia after he was arrested. Keep in mind that Adnan had not yet hired Gutierrez until several weeks after receiving the first Asia letter. Why would he keep this alibi from the police? It obviously had nothing to do with the fact that he could not remember that he saw her on Jan 13 because she clearly states in her letter that she could vouch for him. Adnan also did not raise the Asia letters to his attorneys that handled the bail hearing. He kept his mouth shut about the Asia letters because he realized that he screwed up. Asia's first letter came ONE DAY after Jay told the police the first and only account of when Hae was killed and buried (between 2:15 PM to 8 PM on Jan 13). Asia did not write her letter in response to questions for the police who by her own account had never spoken with her. Yet, she provides a detail in her letter offering to help Adnan account for his time, specifically between 2:15 to 8:00 PM (see page 2 of her March 31 letter). If Asia simply offered to help Adnan account for some his time on January 13, it would have been suspicious because it would imply knowledge of Jenn and Jay's private statements to the police given on Feb 27 and 28, respectively. Asia specifically identifying the relevant time frame precludes the possibility that she was just innocently trying to help Adnan and that he had nothing to do with prearranging the alibi letters. Only after the prosecution committed to the 21 minute time frame when they argued that Hae was killed did Asia with Rabia's help narrow her 5.75 hour range to a 20 minute stretch in her affidavit that overlaps with the State's story. Keep in mind also that the affidavit was prepared one year after Asia wrote her two letters. By including that detail in her first letter, Asia unwittingly revealed that Adnan planned his alibi before being arrested and knew when Hae was killed and buried independent of Jay's statements. Thus, Asia's letter does the exact opposite of providing Adnan with an alibi. It proves that Adnan had knowledge of Hae's murder and burial which he failed to report at any time before his arrest. Adnan probably figured out that he screwed up by having Asia provide the alibi before he was ever questioned against Jay's timeline. How could he show the cops the letters without implicating himself? "Officers, I know you have not yet revealed your theory of when Hae was killed and buried, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess that at some point you will ask me about my whereabouts between 2:15 PM and 8 PM on January 13, 1999. Well, I happened to receive this letter a day after you arrested me that by remarkable coincidence covers me for that exact same time frame to which I imagine you will refer some time in the future as my 'unwitnessed, unaccountable lost time.' Hell, Asia even knew you would refer to it using that exact language! Obviously, this letter proves that I had nothing to do with the incident that allegedly took place at a time I could have not known about unless I was involved in Hae's murder." Oops. He thought he was playing it safe by having Asia cover him for the entire time that Hae was killed and buried. The crazy thing is, it appears that during his Feb 28, 1999 arrest that the cops NEVER questioned him against Jay's timline. The arresting officers' interview notes do not ever mention it. In fact, Gutierrez complained to the judge FOUR MONTHS AFTER Asia wrote her letter that the prosecution had not yet provided a time of death against which her client could provide an alibi! This compounds how ridiculous Asia's letter is.
Gutierrez's Strategy
Asia Letter
Later, when Gutierrez took over Adnan's defense, her notes indicate that Adnan told her about the Asia alibi. He figured he would see if she could find a way to use the Asia letters. She likely determined immediately that Asia's first letter is poison to the defense and proves only that Adnan had to be involved. Her first line of questions to Adnan: How did Asia know the relevant time frame (2:15 PM to 8:00 PM) the day after Jay made his non-public statement to the cops? Why does she provide such a wide range of 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM when she can only account for "some of your time?" How could she know within 24 hours of your arrest that you had any “unwitnessed, unaccountable lost time” let alone the relevant 5.75 hour stretch on January 13, 1999 when the public did not yet know when HML was killed and buried? Her second line of questions: Did you talk to Asia before you were arrested? Did you tell her what to say in her letter? How will she explain how she knew what time Jay would say you murdered and buried Hae? Do you know how much trouble she will be in if she perjures herself to help you establish an alibi? How confident are you that she will stick to her story if the prosecutors lean on her by hammering away that the penalty for perjury in Maryland is up to 10 years in prison? Her third line which likely remained in her mind: If you weren't involved in Hae's murder, how could you have known that you needed an alibi between 2:15 PM and 8 PM BEFORE Jay gave his first statement to the cops and BEFORE the cops even asked you anything about that time? She probably only needed to ask a couple of the preceding questions before realizing that she had to keep Asia out of the case for Adnan to have a shot. She likely shamed him by warning that if he knows what's good for him he will never bring Asia up to her again. If she gave the prosecution wind of Asia's anti-alibi by interviewing her, she knew they could use Asia as a witness to crucify Adnan. She kept Asia out to protect him. So Gutierrez knew that her client was involved in the murder for which he was accused. Hardly unusual for a criminal defense attorney, but unfortunately, the case doesn't end when you realize your client is not innocent. She still had to defend him and make the prosecution prove their case.
Not atacking the State's Timeline
The prosecutors made a deal with Jay. He agreed to plead to accessory after the fact in exchange for being the State's witness against Adnan. This is also key to Gutierrez's strategy: Jay's deal was contingent upon telling the truth. It specifically states that if it becomes evident that Jay is lying, his deal is voided and the state can bring any charges against him including murder. The terms of the deal were laid out during the State's direct examination of Jay.
Jay's deal poses a strategic problem for Gutierrez. Because of the Asia letter, she knows that Adnan was involved in Hae's murder. If she destroys Jay's testimony and proves that he lied by exposing the holes in his story, Jay's deal gets voided and he becomes fair game for the prosecution. That's fine if Jay acted alone, but she knew that wasn't the case. Jay is still weak on motive, but he would likely be forced to admit that he played a more active role in Hae's murder. While the prosecution's initial story is full of holes, if Jay comes clean, the holes would likely disappear and make the State's case against Adnan much stronger. Of course, Jay would be exposed as a liar, but his second story would fit the cell tower records and the testimony of other witnesses much better. This would put Gutierrez in a position of having to defend Adnan against what she knows to be true, the prosecution’s case would no longer hinge on Jay’s testimony alone resulting in even more of an uphill battle for the defense. I'm not saying that she made the right call, but her strategy of not attacking the time line is not obviously wrong.
What does that leave Gutierrez in terms of tactics? Attacking Jay's credibility and bolstering Adnan's character through favorable witness testimony. She reminds the jury at every opportunity that Jay works in a porn video store. She reminds them that he admitted lying to the cops in his earlier statements about what he knew. But she does not expose him as a liar for any statements he made during the trial lest it destroy his deal and expose Adnan to yet another version of the story--the REAL story--against which she would likely have a more difficult time defending her client. Add to that having to defend Adnan from the State's thinly veiled assertions that he comes from an "honor killing" culture and you can see how she really had her work cut out for her.
Then the State gives Gutierrez a HUGE gift by not disclosing the terms of how the district attorney arranged for Jay's pro bono attorney. Gutierrez pounced on this fact and did what she could by focusing on the impropriety of the State failing to disclose that it provided a private attorney for Jay. If the trial court judge agreed and ordered the jury to disregard Jay's testimony, the state's case would crumble. Anyway, the trial judge denied Gutierrez's attempt to have Jay's testimony tossed, but she preserved her objections for appeal the focus of which would be that the court erred in allowing Jay's testimony. Gutierrez’s plan was to have the testimony of the prosecution's key witness thrown out without having to prove that he lied. This means that Adnan goes free and Jay keeps his deal and is immune from the prosecution going after him to get the real story because his testimony getting dumped was the prosecution's fault not Jay's. Kind of brilliant, if you ask me.
Gutierrez's Courtroom Style and Treatment of Adnan's Parents.
Based on what I heard from the audio recordings, yes, Gutierrez's elocution left something to be desired. Having seen litigators of varying skill in action, I can see how her style might be effective if she is underscoring the sloppiness of the State's case and trying to make them sound ridiculous. The long, drawn out histrionics can leave a good impression on a jury if you have the right material like when she hammered away at how the prosecutor arranged for Jay's pro bono attorney. As to the rest of the case though, she was handcuffed and did not have much she could sink her teeth into to make the prosecution look stupid. Her questioning ended up being meandering and her style was grating and likely ended up doing more harm. But having an attorney with an annoying voice and style is not grounds for seeking a new trial.
As to Gutierrez's disposition towards Adnan's parents that Rabia blogs about, if I was Gutierrez and knew what she knew and had to deal with her murdering sociopath client's clueless parents and their wet-behind-the-ears law student friend each convinced of his innocence, I would probably not have any patience for them either. She CAN'T tell them her strategy because it is largely based on the fact that Adnan was involved in the murder ("I CAN'T poke holes in the timeline because then Jay will be forced to tell the truth and your son won't have a snowball's chance in hell."). More importantly, the strategy is protected by attorney client privilege and her disbarment would have come a few years earlier if she laid it out for them. Rabia bashes Gutierrez for focusing exclusively on the appeal and accuses her of squeezing as much money as she could out of the case. What Rabia doesn't realize is that if they stuck with Gutierrez or at least kept her on to assist with the appeal if her health became a factor, Adnan would have had a better shot at getting off by focusing exclusively on having Jay's testimony thrown out. After finding out about Asia, did Rabia ask Gutierrez why she didn't use her? Was it possible that this seasoned attorney might have a strategy that she could not disclose to this law student family friend operating on 100% emotion and 0% experience? Nah. Rabia already made up her mind that Gutierrez was a mean and incompetent attorney who needed to be fired. By meddling in the case, convincing Adnan's parents to fire Gutierrez before the appeal and spending time pursuing Asia's anti-alibi, Rabia actually hurt Adnan's chances for a reversal of the verdict. Sure, the prosecution's providing Jay with an attorney eventually ended up being the lead argument in the appeal, but how much time was wasted pursuing the Asia alibi? Rabia and Adnan's new attorneys spent valuable time spinning their wheels focusing their efforts on Asia only to have her recant her ridiculous story (which she is spinning again now years later because it's fun being famous). That time could have been used to gather additional facts surrounding the prosecution's failure to disclose the arrangement of the pro bono attorney. It could have been used to investigate Jay's prior arrests for drug dealing (1997) and disorderly conduct (January 1999) to establish that he clearly knew that there is a difference between a private criminal defense attorney and a public defender. It could have been used to sharpen their legal research and arguments to disqualify Jay's testimony instead of being forced to throw together a shoddy appeal brief when their main argument based on Asia's bogus affidavit blew up in their face. What makes matters worse, Rabia goes blogging to the world about how this lawyer who cannot defend herself because she is dead sucked at her job and was nothing but a money-grubbing bitch. The irony of the well-intentioned Rabia receiving and taking credit for bringing attention to Adnan’s case, writing books and going on speaking tours is that her meddling in the appeal guaranteed that Adnan would rot in prison. The sad part is that neither she nor her fans will ever understand that.
Adnan's Motive
Hae's letter to Adnan asking him to stop harassing her is pretty damning. They did not discuss it much on the podcast, but read it and you'll see that it's enough to establish motive even without the "i'm going to kill" note that was allegedly written in Adnan's handwriting on the back of the letter. The letter was found in Adnan's room after he was arrested. Rabia and her brother go out of their way to portray Adnan as a player. This "player's" first and only girlfriend dumped HIM. Hae broke up with Adnan in December 1998 and had been with Don for less than two weeks before she was killed (started dating Jan 1, 1999). A player does the dumping and Adnan was apparently not handling his dumpee status well. They broke up a couple of times before, but ended up getting back together. The narrative on Serial makes it sound like Adnan was taking the last break up in stride and got along ok with Don when they met to look at Hae's car. What Koenig fails to make clear is that at the time Adnan met Don, Hae and Don were CO-WORKERS at Lenscrafters and were not yet BF/GF, so Don was not a threat. Don went out to look at his CO-WORKER's car at a time described as before Christmas 1998 and BEFORE Don and Hae started dating. After learning that he had been replaced in early January 1999, the "player" became an ignited powder keg. Adnan's phone shows three calls to Hae the night before she was murdered. No calls on his phone the day she was killed. You would think he would at least try after getting a call from the cops that she's missing. On the flip side, we learn that Don didn't call Hae either, but they were together for less than 2 weeks. Adnan and Hae had a much longer history and when Adnan was calling Hae the night before her murder, she was with Don. If Hae told Adnan she was with Don...boom goes the dynamite.
The above analysis made the entire case finally make sense to me. Why Asia's alibi was not used in the trial. Why Adnan kept his trap shut about the alibi and said nothing of it to his family or Rabia until after his conviction. Why Adnan did not lose his mind and curse Gutierrez for supposedly dropping the ball and not pursuing the Asia alibi. Why Adnan raised it to Rabia in desperation after he was convicted because he figured he had nothing to lose. Why Asia's fiancee stonewalled her participation in the appeal and made her recant her bogus affidavit because she likely told him the circumstances where Adnan asked her in advance to provide him with an alibi. Why Adnan was less than enthusiastic when Koenig told him that she found Asia--because he was scared that Koenig learned the truth about the bogus alibi, not at all because it was too late for his appeal as stated in the podcast. Asia continuing to stick with her story when speaking with Koenig is strange, but I'll bet she is no longer with that sensible fiancee who saved her from being charged with perjury. Also, how bad would she look if she admitted now that her letters and affidavit were bs? Finally, speaking with a reporter is different than giving sworn testimony in a court proceeding, but assuming Asia knows the difference would be giving her too much credit. In our celebrity-crazed society, Asia went from being a nobody to a household name. Given the choice of being elevated to the hero of a story everyone was taking about or universally reviled as a lying moron, she unsurprisingly embraced the former. You don’t need a sensitive bs meter to know Asia is full of it. Read Asia's letters to Adnan and her Affidavit. In these documents she is keenly aware of how important her testimony could be. Her words clearly state that she knows that Adnan needs to account for his time down to the specific range used later by the prosecution at the trial. Her words beg for someone to speak to her about the case so she can help. Now listen to her Serial interview with Koenig. She is as clueless as Donald Trump trying to answer questions about the ideas in Art of the Deal that he is capable of neither explaining nor understanding because it was ghost written for him. During Koenig's interview, Asia couldn't comprehend how she could have helped get Adnan off. This is even after Koenig spoon-feeds her as to how her testimony could have been exculpatory. So we are to believe that she somehow made the connection of the relevance of her testimony BEFORE the prosecution made its case (actually, before the police even finished their investigation), BEFORE anyone even knew the relevant time frame for which Adnan needed to account for himself, but afterward all she does is shrug and say she wishes there was "some technicality to prove his innocence." This is like hitting the trifecta at the track and failing to make the connection between your picks and the winning ticket--this might happen if you know nothing about horse racing and someone fixed the race and made the picks for you.
The anonymous caller was likely a guy from Adnan's mosque community--he clearly knew both Adnan and Yasser Ali who did not go to the same school as Adnan. I doubt the caller had specific knowledge about the murder or was involved, but more likely felt uncomfortable because of something an overconfident Adnan may have said (i.e. "I know what happened..." or "she got what she deserved" or the like...). One of the few things Adnan uttered in court during his trial was, "you're pathetic" directed to Jay. Is that what an innocent man says to the person who framed him for murder or is that what a mastermind co-conspirator says to the guy who sold him out? Does an innocent person claim that he doesn't know that Leakin Park (Hae's burial site) exists? Keep in mind that this park is 1000+ acres, one of the largest in the Baltimore area and about two miles from where Adnan went to high school.
The theory that Adnan was framed and the real killer used Jay as a puppet is ridiculous. Does it make any sense that a convicted murderer with rape being part of his MO who was released less than two weeks before Hae's murder colluded with Jay to kill (but not rape) and bury her? So Jay was really afraid of this now dead criminal who demanded Jay's help to bury the body of the woman who coincidentally happened to be the ex-girlfriend of the guy with whom Jay spent a good chunk of January 13, 1999 not to mention the fact that Jay spent several hours that same day driving the guy's car and talking on the guy's cell phone--Adnan's first cell phone that he bought the day before that he generously let his drug dealing friend use? Please...
Why did Jay go along with it?
Adnan: "Help me or I'll turn you in to the cops for dealing drugs."
Jay: "Well I'll turn you in to the cops for murder!"
Adnan: "Who do you think the cops will believe? A Southeast Asian American honors student on his way to college or a black dropout with a criminal record?"
I imagine the conversation went something like that and Jay said something to this effect in an interview from a few years ago. As to why Adnan reached out to Jay in the first place, as I'm sure others have postulated, his plan was always to pin it on Jay. Jay was the perfect patsy. Adnan's attempt to stage manage Jay's conviction fell apart with the botched Asia alibi, Jay getting his story to the cops first and Jay getting a plea deal.
Conclusion
The inconsistencies in the details of the timeline are irrelevant. Jay likely lied to decrease his own involvement and increase Adnan's. As to Jay's recent interview 15 years after the fact, it is an irrevocable fact that Adnan's cell was pinging the towers near Hae's burial site between 7 and 8 PM on January 13, 1999. The Asia letter shows that Adnan knew when the murder and burial took place. Serial should have ended after the first episode. Koenig could have nipped this entire story in the bud by asking Asia, who is now more than happy to discuss the matter, how she came to know by March 1, 1999 that Adnan needed to account for his time between 2:15 and 8 PM on January 13, 1999. I may be wrong, but I don't think Koenig was trying to deliberately deceive her audience. Her wanting to believe the story likely got in the way of her objectivity. *Update* Adnan Syed has spent more than half his life in jail. There are individuals walking free among us who have committed worse crimes and served less time. Although I am certain of his guilt, I also think he was just a stupid kid who committed a terrible crime, thought he could outsmart the system and paid a price. He may have been a budding sociopath when he went in, but he did not get away with his crime and I'm not sure he is the same conniving, duplicitous piece of crap anymore. He should get a new trial. The most just outcome would be if he were to sincerely apologize to HML's family, take a deal and plead guilty to manslaughter with release for time served. It would be more honest and less risky than continuing this innocence charade. I just wish the path to his new trial didn't plow through his dead lawyer's reputation. Ineffective assistance of counsel...that's like convincing the Vatican that Michelangelo was an ineffective artist but ignoring the fact that after he finished the ceiling, the true incompetents went into the Sistine Chapel and had a paintball fight.

I wrote this up four years ago, but made some modifications in view of additional evidence that came to light (see timelines beginning at https://www.reddit.com/serialpodcastorigins/comments/8cslu3/timeline_vii/), which only reinforces the original conclusions. I've had to edit this a few times as I became aware of additional facts and although I believe the conclusions are still valid regarding CG's legal strategy and Adnan's guilt, the invalidity of Asia's alibi, criminal stupidity of Adnan, his friends and family and the debt these ingrates owe CG as they piss on her grave are fleshed out more clearly here.
The purpose of this post is to use the facts to explain Christina Gutierrez's strategy--particularly why she did not rely on the letters or witness testimony of Asia McClain. Her instincts were spot on and the claim that Adnan Syed received ineffective assistance of counsel is a travesty. Apologies for the length, but if you followed this case, I promise that you will find this worthwhile.
Was Adnan Syed involved in the murder of Hae Min Lee (HML)? YES, but not based solely on the evidence presented by the prosecution. The facts and analysis below show how the most compelling evidence proving Adnan Syed's guilt was not provided by the State. It was provided by his strongest advocate, Rabia Chaudry, who doggedly pursued the Asia alibi.
The March 1, 1999 letter from Asia McClain--incorrectly regarded by many as exculpatory--actually implicates Adnan and proves that he played a role in HML's murder.
The greatest injustice (aside from Hae’s murder) exposed through the Serial Podcast was not what happened to Adnan Syed, but how Christina Gutierrez was portrayed. Based solely on her grossly misinterpreted handling of the Asia McClain letters, every move that Gutierrez made makes perfect sense and her strategy was sound. To best understand the case, we should start with a timeline. The details of whether there was a meeting at Best Buy, who made the Nisha call, etc. are not included because they are not necessary to prove Adnan’s guilt or the effectiveness of Gutierrez as his counsel.
1998
Early December: Adnan and Hae break up.
Mid-December: Adnan and Don look at Hae's car at her job at Lenscrafters. Adnan has no problem with Don and gets along fine, but Don is only Hae's coworker at this time (relevance: motive).
1999
January 1: Don and Hae start dating.
January 11: Adnan purchases his cell phone (first time he owned one) and starts using it the next day.
January 12: Hae spends evening on phone with Don.
January 12: Adnan calls Hae three times between 11:27 PM and 12:35 AM.
January 13: Hae is killed and buried between 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM (the one consistent thread in Jay's multiple statements and testimony, also Adnan's cell was pinging Leakin Park burial site between 7 PM and 8 PM).
January 13: Adnan called by police at 6:24 PM asking if he knows Hae's whereabouts and speaks with them until about 6:30 PM at Kristi’s house.
January 13: Between 7:09 PM and 8:05 PM all four calls to/from Adnan's cell ping Leakin Park towers near Hae's burial site.
Jan 13 to Feb 9: Police question Adnan and Don multiple times pursuant to investigation of Hae's disappearance. Police do not assume anything about if/when Hae could have been killed (relevance: timeline not yet established by police).
February 9: Hae's body found by Mr. S. Medical examiner determines that Hae was strangled, but cannot determine when she was killed (relevance: timeline not yet established by police).
February 12: Anonymous call to cops telling them to look at Hae's ex. Anonymous tipster calls again telling cops to talk to Yasser Ali who might know more.
February 15: Police speak with Yasser who says he knows nothing (relevance: Goes without saying that Yasser tells his friend Adnan that the cops are investigating him (Adnan's cell records show that he spoke with Yasser the next day) and Adnan likely starts establishing his Asia alibi).
February 16: Grand jury convened to determine whether to indict Adnan for murdering HML (Adnan didn't know he was under Grand Jury investigation...more on that here).
February 16-25: Police subpoena Adnan's cell records, identify the numbers called and see that the most frequently called number was Jen (Jay's friend)
February 26: Police try to contact Jen and she says it's not a good time.
February 26: Jen goes to Jay and tells him that the police tried to question her about Hae. According to Jen's story, Jay tells her what to say to police about the murder and tells her send the police to him (relevance: Jay knows its a question of time before police connect him with the calls and knows that he needs to get ahead of the story).
February 26: Jen talks to the police (goes alone), but says that she knows nothing (relevance: Contrary to Jen's story, Jay likely told Jenn to stall while he figures out what she should tell the cops and gives her full account the next day after Jay puts together his version of events).
February 26: Police speak with Adnan (relevance: Adnan by now certainly knows he needs an alibi, but police do not have a time line yet).
February 27: Jen speaks with police again (with her mom and attorney present). This time she tells the police that Jay told her that Adnan strangled Hae. It had not yet been publicly disclosed that HML was strangled, so cops know there is truth behind this story. No timeline established although she says that Jay was at her house between 3:45 PM and 4:15 PM on Jan 13.
February 27: Police speak with Adnan (more aggressively in view of Jen's statement)
February 27: Jay sweating bullets all day at his job at the adult video store waiting for police to contact him and wondering if Adnan got his version of the story to the police first. Police have Jay come in for questioning for the first time (relevance: Jay is not fearful of Adnan physically doing something to him. He is scared that Adnan will throw him under the bus. Jay is definitely not scared--as Rabia Chaudry and the Innocence Project allege--that some random rapist/murderer who was released from prison less than two weeks earlier to whom Jay has no connection is making Jay help cover his tracks).
February 28: Later the same night he was brought in by the cops, Jay gives up Adnan and provides the general timeline that establishes that Hae was killed and buried between 2:15 and 8 PM (consistent with his subsequent statements to the police and testimony). This is the first time the police have a timeline for Hae's murder and burial. This timeline is not yet publicly available, so as far as the public knows, Hae was killed and buried some time between January 13 and February 9. The police question Jay several more times over the next month and a half trying to nail down his story. Relevance: they do not trust Jay's initial timeline and would not question Adnan against it unless it was rock solid, which at this point it was not.
February 28: Arrest warrant is issued against Adnan for murder that took place "ON OR ABOUT 1/13/1999 - 1/31/1999." The police investigation was in its early stages and while the cops knew Adnan and Jay were involved, they were not yet willing to take Jay's word regarding timeline especially given the fact that he had a criminal record.
February 28: Adnan arrested for Hae's murder (this is a Sunday). Police question Adnan, but based on Adnan's attorney's notes taken the next day, there is no indication that the police questioned Adnan about any timeline or asked him to account for his time. They mainly tried to push Adnan to flip on Jay and provide a version where Adnan would throw Jay under the bus, but Adnan lawyered up. Jay, on the other hand, declined an attorney so the cops decided to work with the suspect with whom they were still allowed to speak and spent the next several weeks meeting with Jay and establishing a timeline of events.
March 1: A day after Adnan is arrested, the first Asia letter sent, She states that she can account for some of Adnan's "unwitnessed, unaccountable time" between 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM on January 13. The ink is not yet dry on Jay's non-public statement. The letter was written before the police start to even check whether Adnan has an alibi.
March 2: Second Asia letter reiterating that she can account for Adnan's time, but does not provide a time range like the first letter. Typed this time and includes Adnan's prisoner number on top with the jail address. Asks why he has not yet told police about this. Curiously, despite thousands of people combing through the evidence following the popularity of the Serial podcast, Asia's March 2 letter is the earliest document of which I am aware that identifies Adnan by his prisoner number.
March 6: According to Adnan's lawyer's notes, Adnan inquired about the jail's address and how his mail is scrutinized and requested a self-addressed, stamped envelope and paper. Relevance: Asia supposedly knew Adnan's jail address four days before he did. See also April 20 police interview notes of Ja'uan below.
Early March - March 18 - Adnan's lawyers actively solicit over 600 letters of support from his high school classmates and Muslim community. No indication that Asia wrote one. Given the trouble Asia went through to figure out Adnan's prisoner number (probably before Adnan even knew it himself) and plead with him to direct the police to her in two unsolicited letters, you would think she would take advantage when Adnan's attorneys solicited letters of support as many of her classmates did when she had something so much more substantive to say.
March 31: Adnan's bail hearing where he is represented by two attorneys (Gutierrez not yet involved). Nothing in the record indicates that Adnan showed the Asia letters to these two attorneys.
After March 31: Christina Gutierrez hired to defend Adnan.
April 14: Grand Jury formally indicts Adnan for murder. Adnan really feeling the heat now.
April 16: First face-to-face meeting between Gutierrez and Adnan.
April 20: Police interview Adnan's friend Ja'uan. Ja'uan tells cops that he recently received a letter from Adnan and that he also wrote letters to his friend Justin and Justin's ex, Asia. Ja'uan said that Adnan gave Asia a letter to "type up with his address on it." Asia's "March 2" letter was typed up and and had his address (and prisoner number) across the top. Other than the letters Asia sent to Adnan, this is the first reference to Asia by either prosecution or defense in the record.
July 7: Gutierrez files a demand letter with the court complaining that the prosecution had not provided info on when HML was killed and that “Defendant can’t possibly mount a defense or determine if an alibi disclosure is needed without being on notice of the alleged time of death.” (relevance: THIS IS KEY TO UNDERSTANDING WHY GUTIERREZ DID NOT USE ASIA--More than four months after the Asia letters, Adnan was still not told of the State's timeline, but Asia somehow used her fortune teller skills to identify the precise time for which Adnan needed an alibi).
July 8: State responds to demand letter stating HML was killed shortly after she left school for the day on Jan 13, 1999.
July 10: Gutierrez visits Adnan. She had been visiting him regularly (5/28, 6/5, 6/8, 6/26), but something happened at this meeting and she sent her underlings after this meeting and visited Adnan one more time in September before the trial and once after the verdict. Given what Adnan discussed three days later with CG's legal team, this is the likely date that Adnan first told CG about Asia (when CG made her undated notes about Asia). CG's notes about Asia are consistent with the State's newly revealed time of HML's death, which is likely what they discussed.
July 13: Gutierrez sends her associate and paralegal to meet with Adnan. The paralegal took notes similar to CG's about Asia noting Adnan's story about Asia and her boyfriend seeing him at the library after school at 3 PM on Jan. 13. This is the first dated reference to Asia in the defense record, but CG's undated notes about Asia likely preceded them.
September 7: Jay enters plea deal that is contingent upon Jay telling truth. If his testimony is proven to be false, State could bring any charge against Jay including murder.
2000
February 18: Gutierrez learns for the first time almost six weeks into the second trial and after the State rests that the prosecutor arranged for Jay's free private defense attorney.
February 25: Adnan found guilty
June 6: Adnan sentenced to life plus 30
July 6: Jay sentenced to probation (under deal was facing max 5 years)
​
The way alibis typically work: a suspect is questioned by the police based on when they believe the crime was committed. The suspect is asked to account for his time and if anyone could confirm the suspect's story that he was somewhere else at the time the crime was committed. If the suspect has an alibi, the police investigate whether the alibi checks out. Adnan was arrested on Feb 28. Before the cops or prosecution even questioned Adnan about his whereabouts on January 13, Asia went ahead and provided him with an alibi within 24 hours of his arrest.
The most important feature of the above timeline is that before Jay's statements, neither the police nor the public were operating under the assumption that Hae was killed and buried between 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM on January 13. Some thought she was with Don. Some thought she went to California to see her father. Gutierrez herself argued at trial that Hae could have been killed Jan 13 or Jan 14 or Jan 15, etc. At the time Adnan was arrested, all that was known was that HML was last seen on January 13th and that she was killed and buried some time between January 13th and February 9th. HML could have been stuffed in the trunk of her car alive by Jay on January 13 and killed the next day or the day after that. The only evidence establishing the January 13 timeline of Hae's murder and burial is Jay's testimony, which was unknown to the public as of March 1, 1999.
Nothing in the record indicates that Adnan told the police about Asia after he was arrested. Keep in mind that Adnan had not yet hired Gutierrez until several weeks after receiving the first Asia letter. Why would he keep this alibi from the police? It obviously had nothing to do with the fact that he could not remember that he saw her on Jan 13 because she clearly states in her letter that she could vouch for him. Adnan also did not raise the Asia letters to his attorneys that handled the bail hearing. He kept his mouth shut about the Asia letters because he realized that he screwed up. Asia's first letter came ONE DAY after Jay told the police the first and only account of when Hae was killed and buried (between 2:15 PM to 8 PM on Jan 13). Asia did not write her letter in response to questions for the police who by her own account had never spoken with her. Yet, she provides a detail in her letter offering to help Adnan account for his time, specifically between 2:15 to 8:00 PM (see page 2 of her March 1 letter). If Asia simply offered to help Adnan account for some his time on January 13, it would have been suspicious because it would imply knowledge of Jen and Jay's private statements to the police given on Feb 27 and 28, respectively. Asia specifically identifying the relevant time frame precludes the possibility that she was just innocently trying to help Adnan and that he had nothing to do with prearranging the alibi letters. Only after the prosecution committed to the 21 minute time frame when they argued that Hae was killed did Asia with Rabia's help narrow her 5.75 hour range to a 20 minute stretch in her affidavit that overlaps with the State's story. Keep in mind also that the affidavit was prepared one year after Asia wrote her two letters. By including that detail in her first letter, Asia unwittingly revealed that Adnan planned his alibi before being arrested and knew when Hae was killed and buried independent of Jay's statements. Thus, Asia's letter does the exact opposite of providing Adnan with an alibi. It proves that Adnan had knowledge of Hae's murder and burial which he failed to report at any time before his arrest. Adnan probably figured out that he screwed up by having Asia provide the alibi before he was ever questioned against Jay's timeline. When the cops arrested Adnan, they wanted to leave room for Adnan to flip on Jay. Jay provided details about how HML was strangled that were not known to the public so they knew that he was somehow involved. They were not ready to believe Jay's half-baked story after his first interview and would definitely not question Adnan against an unreliable timeline before it was rock solid. Adnan did not count on that. He was hoping and expecting to be asked like he probably learned from movies: "Where were you after school on Jan 13, 1999?" Instead, he was hit with, "We know you and Jay were involved in HML's murder, tell us what Jay did and we will go easy on you..." to which the correct answer IS NOT "I couldn't have done it because I was in the library on January 13, 1999 between 2 and 3 PM!!!" To which the cops would reply, "why would we give a flying f*ck where you were at that time? We didn't ask you that. We're just beginning our investigation. Should we care about where you were at that time? Because it certainly appears that you do!" There was no way for Adnan to show the cops Asia's March 1 letter in the days following his arrest. He thought he was playing it safe by having Asia cover him for the entire time that Hae was killed and buried. The arresting officers' interview notes of Adnan do not ever mention it. Adnan's description to his lawyer the next day of what the cops asked him makes no mention of it. The arrest warrant lists HML's murder as happening between Jan 13 and Jan 31. In fact, Gutierrez complained to the judge FOUR MONTHS AFTER Asia wrote her letter that the prosecution had not yet provided a time of death against which her client could provide an alibi! This compounds how ridiculous Asia's letter is. Coincidentally, however, only after the State responds to CG's demand letter and they disclose that HML was killed shortly after school on Jan 13 does Adnan finally tell his lawyers about Asia.
Gutierrez's Strategy
Asia Letter
Later, when Gutierrez took over Adnan's defense, her notes indicate that Adnan told her about the Asia alibi. As mentioned in the timeline, her undated notes were likely taken on July 10, 1999 when CG met with Adnan immediately after the State finally disclosed when HML was killed. He figured Asia's letters were finally relevant and he would see if she could find a way to use them. She likely determined immediately that Asia's first letter is poison to the defense and proves only that Adnan had to be involved. Her first line of questions to Adnan: How did Asia know the relevant time frame (2:15 PM to 8:00 PM) the day after Jay made his non-public statement to the cops? Why does she provide such a wide range of 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM when she can only account for "some of your time?" How could she know within 24 hours of your arrest that you had any “unwitnessed, unaccountable lost time” let alone the relevant 5.75 hour stretch on January 13, 1999 when the public did not yet know when HML was killed and buried? Her second line of questions: Did you talk to Asia before you were arrested? Did you tell her what to say in her letter? How will she explain how she knew what time Jay would say you murdered and buried Hae? Do you know how much trouble she will be in if she perjures herself to help you establish an alibi? How confident are you that she will stick to her story if the prosecutors lean on her by hammering away that the penalty for perjury in Maryland is up to 10 years in prison? Her third line which likely remained in her mind: If you weren't involved in Hae's murder, how could you have known that you needed an alibi between 2:15 PM and 8 PM BEFORE Jay gave his first statement to the cops and BEFORE the cops even asked you anything about that time? Then she really got pissed off: WHY IN THE NAME OF GRANDMA'S MOLASSES DID YOU WAIT UNTIL JULY TO SHOW ME LETTERS DATED MORE THAN FOUR MONTHS AGO??? AND HOW IN THE NAME OF NOSTRA-FUCKING-DAMUS DID ASIA KNOW YOUR PRISONER NUMBER ON MARCH 2???? AND IF YOU'RE GOING TO MAKE UP AN ALIBI, WHY IN THE NAME OF H.G.-FUCKING-WELLS WOULD YOU DATE IT FOUR MONTHS BEFORE YOU NEEDED IT??? CG immediately recognized that Adnan was trying to stage manage her and his case and it pissed her off so much that she could not stand the sight of him, which is likely why she sent her associate and paralegal to meet with him a few days later. Adnan fed them the same load of crap and they likely confirmed to CG that they didn't buy it either. In view of Adnan's inept attempt to fabricate an alibi, CG knew that she had to keep Asia out of the case for Adnan to have a shot. She likely shamed him by saying something like, "If you know what's good for you, you will never bring this up to me again and I have to pretend that you never showed me these letters." If she gave the prosecution wind of Asia's anti-alibi by interviewing her, she knew they could use Asia as a witness to crucify Adnan. She kept Asia out to protect him. So Gutierrez knew that her client was involved in the murder for which he was accused. Hardly unusual for a criminal defense attorney, but unfortunately, the case doesn't end when you realize your client is not innocent. She still had to defend him and make the prosecution prove their case.
Not atacking the State's Timeline
The prosecutors made a deal with Jay. He agreed to plead to accessory after the fact in exchange for being the State's witness against Adnan. This is also key to Gutierrez's strategy: Jay's deal was contingent upon telling the truth. It specifically states that if it becomes evident that Jay is lying, his deal is voided and the state can bring any charges against him including murder. The terms of the deal were laid out during the State's direct examination of Jay.
Jay's deal poses a strategic problem for Gutierrez. Because of the Asia letter, she knows that Adnan was involved in Hae's murder. If she destroys Jay's testimony and proves that he lied by exposing the holes in his story, Jay's deal gets voided and he becomes fair game for the prosecution. That's fine if Jay acted alone, but she knew that wasn't the case. Jay is still weak on motive, but he would likely be forced to admit that he played a more active role in Hae's murder. While the prosecution's initial story is full of holes, if Jay comes clean, the holes would likely disappear and make the State's case against Adnan much stronger. Of course, Jay would be exposed as a liar, but his second story would fit the cell tower records and the testimony of other witnesses much better. This would put Gutierrez in a position of having to defend Adnan against what she knows to be true, the prosecution’s case would no longer hinge on Jay’s testimony alone resulting in even more of an uphill battle for the defense. I'm not saying that she made the right call, but her strategy of not attacking the time line is not obviously wrong.
What does that leave Gutierrez in terms of tactics? Attacking Jay's credibility and bolstering Adnan's character through favorable witness testimony. She reminds the jury at every opportunity that Jay works in a porn video store. She reminds them that he admitted lying to the cops in his earlier statements about what he knew. But she does not expose him as a liar for any statements he made during the trial lest it destroy his deal and expose Adnan to yet another version of the story--the REAL story--against which she would likely have a more difficult time defending her client. Add to that having to defend Adnan from the State's thinly veiled assertions that he comes from an "honor killing" culture and you can see how she really had her work cut out for her.
Then the State gives Gutierrez a HUGE gift by not disclosing the terms of how the district attorney arranged for Jay's pro bono attorney. Gutierrez pounced on this fact and did what she could by focusing on the impropriety of the State failing to disclose that it provided a private attorney for Jay. If the trial court judge agreed and ordered the jury to disregard Jay's testimony, the state's case would crumble. Anyway, the trial judge denied Gutierrez's attempt to have Jay's testimony tossed, but she preserved her objections for appeal the focus of which would be that the court erred in allowing Jay's testimony. Gutierrez’s plan was to have the testimony of the prosecution's key witness thrown out without having to prove that he lied. This means that Adnan goes free and Jay keeps his deal and is immune from the prosecution going after him to get the real story because his testimony getting dumped was the prosecution's fault not Jay's. Kind of brilliant, if you ask me.
Gutierrez's Treatment of Adnan's Parents and Rabia
As to Gutierrez's disposition towards Adnan's parents that Rabia blogs about, if I was Gutierrez and knew that my client tried to get me to argue an obviously fraudulent alibi and had to deal with her murdering sociopath client's clueless parents and their wet-behind-the-ears law student friend each convinced of his innocence, I would probably not have any patience for them either. She CAN'T tell them her strategy because it is largely based on the fact that Adnan was involved in the murder ("I CAN'T poke holes in the timeline because then Jay will be forced to tell the truth and your son won't have a snowball's chance in hell."). More importantly, the strategy is protected by attorney client privilege and her disbarment would have come a few years earlier if she laid it out for them. Rabia bashes Gutierrez for focusing exclusively on the appeal and accuses her of squeezing as much money as she could out of the case. What Rabia doesn't realize is that if they stuck with Gutierrez or at least kept her on to assist with the appeal if her health became a factor, Adnan would have had a better shot at getting off by focusing exclusively on having Jay's testimony thrown out. After finding out about Asia, did Rabia ask Gutierrez why she didn't use her? Was it possible that this seasoned attorney might have a strategy that she could not disclose to this law student family friend operating on 100% emotion and 0% experience? DID SHE FIND IT WEIRD THAT ADNAN WAS IN POSSESSION OF THE ASIA LETTERS AND THAT SHE GOT THEM DIRECTLY FROM HIM INSTEAD OF FROM HIS ATTORNEY??? Did she ask herself or Adnan why his attorney would not want to touch those Asia letters with a 10 foot pole? Nah. Rabia already made up her mind that Gutierrez was a mean and incompetent attorney who needed to be fired. By meddling in the case, convincing Adnan's parents to fire Gutierrez before the appeal and spending time pursuing Asia's anti-alibi, Rabia actually hurt Adnan's chances for a reversal of the verdict. Sure, the prosecution's providing Jay with an attorney eventually ended up being the lead argument in the appeal, but how much time was wasted pursuing the Asia alibi? Rabia and Adnan's new attorneys spent valuable time spinning their wheels focusing their efforts on Asia only to have her recant her ridiculous story (which she is spinning again now years later because it's fun being famous). That time could have been used to gather additional facts surrounding the prosecution's failure to disclose the arrangement of the pro bono attorney. It could have been used to investigate Jay's prior arrests for drug dealing (1997) and disorderly conduct (January 1999) to establish that he clearly knew that there is a difference between a private criminal defense attorney and a public defender. It could have been used to sharpen their legal research and arguments to disqualify Jay's testimony instead of being forced to throw together a shoddy appeal brief when their main argument based on Asia's bogus affidavit blew up in their face. What makes matters worse, Rabia goes blogging to the world about how this lawyer who cannot defend herself because she is dead sucked at her job and was nothing but a money-grubbing bitch. The irony of the well-intentioned Rabia receiving and taking credit for bringing attention to Adnan’s case, writing books and going on speaking tours is that her meddling in the appeal guaranteed that Adnan would rot in prison. The sad part is that neither she nor her fans will ever understand that.
Adnan's Motive
Hae's letter to Adnan asking him to stop harassing her is pretty damning. They did not discuss it much on the podcast, but read it and you'll see that it's enough to establish motive even without the "i'm going to kill" note that was allegedly written in Adnan's handwriting on the back of the letter. The letter was found in Adnan's room after he was arrested. Rabia and her brother go out of their way to portray Adnan as a player. This "player's" first and only girlfriend dumped HIM. Hae broke up with Adnan in December 1998 and had been with Don for less than two weeks before she was killed (started dating Jan 1, 1999). A player does the dumping and Adnan was apparently not handling his dumpee status well. They broke up a couple of times before, but ended up getting back together. The narrative on Serial makes it sound like Adnan was taking the last break up in stride and got along ok with Don when they met to look at Hae's car. What Koenig fails to make clear is that at the time Adnan met Don, Hae and Don were CO-WORKERS at Lenscrafters and were not yet BF/GF, so Don was not a threat. Don went out to look at his CO-WORKER's car at a time described as before Christmas 1998 and BEFORE Don and Hae started dating. After learning that he had been replaced in early January 1999, the "player" became an ignited powder keg. Adnan's phone shows three calls to Hae the night before she was murdered. No calls on his phone the day she was killed. You would think he would at least try after getting a call from the cops that she's missing. On the flip side, we learn that Don didn't call Hae either, but they were together for less than 2 weeks. Adnan and Hae had a much longer history and when Adnan was calling Hae the night before her murder, she was on the other line with Don. If Hae told Adnan she had to get back to Don on the other line...boom goes the dynamite.
The above analysis made the entire case finally make sense to me. Why Asia's alibi was not used in the trial. Why Adnan kept his trap shut about the alibi and said nothing of it to his family or Rabia until after his conviction. Why Adnan did not lose his mind and curse Gutierrez for supposedly dropping the ball and not pursuing the Asia alibi. Why Adnan raised it to Rabia in desperation after he was convicted because he figured he had nothing to lose. Why Asia's fiancee stonewalled her participation in the appeal and made her recant her bogus affidavit because she likely told him the circumstances where Adnan asked her in advance to provide him with an alibi. Why Adnan was less than enthusiastic when Koenig told him that she found Asia--because he was scared that Koenig learned the truth about the bogus alibi, not at all because it was too late for his appeal as stated in the podcast. Asia continuing to stick with her story when speaking with Koenig is strange, but I'll bet she is no longer with that sensible fiancee who saved her from being charged with perjury. Also, how bad would she look if she admitted now that her letters and affidavit were bs? Finally, speaking with a reporter is different than giving sworn testimony in a court proceeding, but assuming Asia knows the difference would be giving her too much credit. In our celebrity-crazed society, Asia went from being a nobody to a household name. Given the choice of being elevated to the hero of a story everyone was taking about or universally reviled as a lying moron, she unsurprisingly embraced the former. You don’t need a sensitive bs meter to know Asia is full of it. Read Asia's letters to Adnan and her Affidavit. In these documents she is keenly aware of how important her testimony could be. Her words clearly state that she knows that Adnan needs to account for his time down to the specific range used later by the prosecution at the trial. Her words beg for someone to speak to her about the case so she can help. Now listen to her Serial interview with Koenig. She is as clueless as Donald Trump trying to answer questions about the ideas in Art of the Deal that he is capable of neither explaining nor understanding because it was ghost written for him. During Koenig's interview, Asia couldn't comprehend how she could have helped get Adnan off. This is even after Koenig spoon-feeds her as to how her testimony could have been exculpatory. So we are to believe that she somehow made the connection of the relevance of her testimony BEFORE the prosecution made its case (actually, before the police even finished their investigation), BEFORE anyone even knew the relevant time frame for which Adnan needed to account for himself, but afterward all she does is shrug and say she wishes there was "some technicality to prove his innocence." This is like hitting the trifecta at the track and failing to make the connection between your picks and the winning ticket--this might happen if you know nothing about horse racing and someone fixed the race and made the picks for you.
The anonymous caller was likely a guy from Adnan's mosque community--he clearly knew both Adnan and Yasser Ali who did not go to the same school as Adnan. I doubt the caller had specific knowledge about the murder or was involved, but more likely felt uncomfortable because of something an overconfident Adnan may have said (i.e. "I know what happened..." or "she got what she deserved" or the like...). One of the few things Adnan uttered in court during his trial was, "pathetic" directed to Jay. Is that what an innocent man says to the person who framed him for murder or is that what a mastermind co-conspirator says to the guy who sold him out? Does an innocent person claim that he doesn't know that Leakin Park (Hae's burial site) exists? Keep in mind that this park is 1000+ acres, one of the largest in the Baltimore area and about two miles from where Adnan went to high school.
The theory that Adnan was framed and the real killer used Jay as a puppet is ridiculous. Does it make any sense that a convicted murderer with rape being part of his MO who was released less than two weeks before Hae's murder colluded with Jay to kill (but not rape) and bury her? So Jay was really afraid of this now dead criminal who demanded Jay's help to bury the body of the woman who coincidentally happened to be the ex-girlfriend of the guy with whom Jay spent a good chunk of January 13, 1999 not to mention the fact that Jay spent several hours that same day driving the guy's car and talking on the guy's cell phone--Adnan's first cell phone that he bought the day before that he generously let his drug dealing friend use? Please...
Why did Jay go along with it?
Adnan: "Help me or I'll turn you in to the cops for dealing drugs."
Jay: "Well I'll turn you in to the cops for murder!"
Adnan: "Who do you think the cops will believe? A Southeast Asian American honors student on his way to college or a black dropout with a criminal record?"
I imagine the conversation went something like that and Jay said something to this effect in an interview from a few years ago. As to why Adnan reached out to Jay in the first place, as I'm sure others have postulated, his plan was always to pin it on Jay. Jay was the perfect patsy. Adnan's attempt to stage manage Jay's conviction fell apart with the botched Asia alibi, Jay getting his story to the cops first and Jay getting a plea deal.
Conclusion
The inconsistencies in Jay's story are irrelevant to the extent that the one common thread in his different versions is the time when HML was killed and buried. Jay likely lied to decrease his own involvement and increase Adnan's. The Asia letter shows that Adnan knew when the murder and burial took place. Serial should have ended after the first episode. Koenig could have nipped this entire story in the bud by asking Asia, who is now more than happy to discuss the matter, how she came to know by March 1, 1999 that Adnan needed to account for his time between 2:15 and 8 PM on January 13, 1999. I may be wrong, but I don't think Koenig was trying to deliberately deceive her audience. Her wanting to believe the story likely got in the way of her objectivity. As to the timing of the letters, it seems clear that although the first letter may have been written on March 1st, it was planned before Adnan was arrested. The second letter makes no sense. Why would Asia get so antsy and feel compelled to send another letter one day later, but not bother sending any letter one week later when solicited by Adnan's attorney? Adnan was just assigned a bunk. Give a brother a minute to get his bearings. Keep in mind he was just given a prisoner number that she miraculously was able to identify on March 2 as well as his address that he didn't know himself on March 6. Based on Ja'uan's April 20, 1999 interview, it seems pretty obvious that Adnan felt compelled to further "fix" his alibi following his indictment one week earlier by sending another request to his alibi accomplice and the March 2 letter was created after the fact.
Whether or not he deserves it, Adnan Syed will likely get a new trial. He has spent more than half his life in jail. The most just outcome would be if he were to sincerely apologize to HML's family, take a deal and plead guilty to manslaughter with release for time served. It would be more honest and less risky than continuing this innocence charade. I just wish the path to his new trial didn't plow through his dead lawyer's reputation.

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