Title says it all. Going to suggest a player to be drafted in either the first or second round (or third for HOU at the moment) for each team, along with a player to target in free agency, and a player to potentially trade for.
Trying to avoid overlap as best I can, but some may have similar targets. Resources used include PFF, The Draft Network, and OverTheCap. Enjoy!

Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

Trade Target: DT J.J. Watt, Houston Texans - The last deal between Arizona and Houston worked out well. Why not try again and add a serious piece to their pass rushing arsenal in Watt. An ideal interior fit for Arizona, Watt would help them push for the playoffs in his final seasons in the league.
Draft Pick: C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma - Reuniting Kyler Murray with his old center for the Sooners would be an excellent move. The Cardinals currently have Mason Cole at center, but could easily slide him over to guard to make room for Humphrey if they wanted a significant upgrade at an underrated position.
Free Agent Signing: TE Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans - Arizona would be wise to look at adding Jonnu Smith into the equation on offense. One of the NFL's best after the catch at the TE position, he'd be another fun weapon to slot alongside Murray and Hopkins.

Atlanta Falcons (4-12)

Trade Target: S Tracy Walker, Detroit Lions - With a new regime coming in, Detroit is headed towards an extended rebuild, and acquiring assets for up-and-down players like Walker could be a consideration. Now, still young, Walker has plenty of potential for the Falcons, and if the price is right, could be a tremendous bargain.
Draft Pick: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State - While Matt Ryan will remain the QB of the Falcons next season, due to his contract, the Falcons should plan for the future and add a Georgia native in Fields, one of the better QB's out of college football in recent years. He'd be able to develop behind Ryan under the tutelage of new head coach Arthur Smith.
Free Agent Signing: CB Mackensie Alexander, Cincinnati Bengals - The Falcons do not have positive cap space at the moment (currently projected $30 million over the limit) so even after reworking deals and cutting some players, they'll be bargain shopping more than anything else. PFF projects Alexander to fetch a deal of about 2-years, $6 million, which could be feasible for the Falcons. He'd be a solid veteran presence across from CB A.J. Terrell.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5)

Trade Target: OLB Whitney Mercilus, Houston - I list him in "trade target" as he's technically under contract in Houston going into 2021. However, it's 99% more likely that the Texans cut him and Baltimore pursues him as a newly released free agent. Kind of cheating on my listings, but I like the idea of Mercilus in Baltimore after Houston cuts him. It'd be a coup for Houston if they could get a pick for him. Mercilus is a veteran pass rusher who could step into a role in Baltimore should OLB Matt Judon depart for greener pastures...green meaning money of course.
Draft Pick: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota - The idea of Bateman in Baltimore remains one of my favorite potential pairings for any player likely to be selected in the first round of the draft. Similar to Keenan Allen in my opinion, Bateman could become the go-to wide receiver the Ravens lacked last season.
Free Agent Signing: G Jon Feliciano, Buffalo Bills - The Ravens need to bolster the middle of their offensive line, and a tough veteran like Feliciano could be ideal target for the Ravens. With a big contract committed to LT Ronnie Staley, a cheaper veteran like Feliciano could match price tag with talent. Good value for the Ravens.

Buffalo Bills (13-3)

Trade Target: DT Malcom Brown, New Orleans Saints - The Saints are in cap space purgatory, and thus could be looking to offload some decent players like Brown simply to get back under the cap. He's a solid starting DT who could be available for cheap in the Saints push to real in their financial situation. A strong fit next to Ed Oliver on the inside.
Draft Pick: LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina - Given their limited cap space, the Bills may have to decide between re-signing OT Daryl Williams and LB Matt Milano. If so, a replacement like Surratt could be a smart move for Sean McDermott and co. as Surratt is a quick backer who excels in space and has shown plenty of promise in coverage.
Free Agent Signing: DE Romeo Okwara, Detroit Lions - The Bills aren't loaded with cap space (barely above 0 if the cap stays down at $175 million), but I'd imagine they'll find some ways to free some cap up. If they do, they may want to consider Okwara, a rising pass-rusher, as a replacement for some of their own departing edge rushers. He tallied 10 sacks this season after hitting 7.5 sacks in 2018 in Detroit. While not elite, Okwara's likely a solid value pass-rusher for a contender like the Bills.

Carolina Panthers (5-11)

Trade Target: DT Akiem Hicks, Chicago Bears - The Panthers just drafted DT Derrick Brown, but pairing him and Hicks together could become a dominant duo in the middle of that defense. And with DT Kawann Short a likely cut candidate, Hicks could be an instant upgrade for Carolina.
Draft Pick: LB Micah Parsons, Penn State - Forget the QB position, if the Panthers have the opportunity to land Parsons at 8th overall, they should pull the trigger. He'd be an immediate boost of speed, instincts and athleticism into their linebacker corps, a strong replacement for Luke Kuechly.
Free Agent Signing: TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams - More of a move tight end than a traditional in-line blocker, Everett could be an exceptional value signing for someone, as he's not likely to command as much money as Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith, but is a very good player himself.

Chicago Bears (8-8)

Trade Target: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers - Unless the Bears are set to bring back Mitch Trubisky, who played a bit better to end the season but still not strong enough, the Bears should look at the veteran QB market. While Garoppolo has had some injury issues, he's a notable upgrade over Trubisky and could give them a steady veteran presence for a couple of more years.
Draft Pick: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech - There's growing buzz that Rashawn Slater could join Penei Sewell in the top-10, leaving him just out of the Bears' grasp. But Darrisaw is quite the consolation prize as he's a first-round caliber offensive tackle himself who could fill a big need for the offense in the Windy City.
Free Agent Signing: WR Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs - Watkins and Bears head coach Matt Nagy did not cross paths in Kansas City, but a recommendation from Andy Reid could push the two together. The Bears are another team facing some cap complications, and thus may need a cheaper replacement for Allen Robinson on the outside. If so, Watkins has been a strong complimentary receiver who could pair well with rising youngster Darnell Mooney.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)

Trade Target: G Joe Dahl, Detroit Lions - Finding protection and weapons for QB Joe Burrow is the primary goal for Cincinnati this offseason before they enter the coaching carousel in 2022. Dahl is a strong pass protector who has grown into a quality starter. However, with large contracts for C Frank Ragnow coming up, along with big deals in place for Decker and Vaitai, Detroit may need to send Dahl out for picks.
Draft Pick: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon - There is buzz that Northwestern's Rashawn Slater may be viewed as OT1, and I get the hype, however, I'm sticking with Sewell for now. The Bengals should draft Sewell and get him ready to go as their franchise left tackle in 2021.
Free Agent Signing: CB Troy Hill, Los Angeles Rams - The Bengals have a healthy chunk of cap space, and should use of that to bring back CB William Jackson III. However, they should not stop there, they should also make a push for a quality veteran cornerback like Hill to bolster their defense in the meantime.

Cleveland Browns (11-5)

Trade Target: LB Jaylon Smith, Dallas Cowboys - After looking like an elite linebacker from 2017-2019, Smith had a rough year under now fired defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. A fresh start in Cleveland could be ideal for both teams, as Smith is still young enough, 26 years, to be a strong piece to their defense for years to come.
Draft Pick: DT Daviyon Nixon, Iowa - The Browns are in a strong position at 26th overall to sit and see who the top defensive lineman on the board is. If they're lucky enough for it to be a high potential defensive tackle like Nixon, it'd be an ideal situation to bring him in the replace Ogunjobi. A defensive end like Jayson Oweh or Jaelan Phillips could also work here.
Free Agent Signing: S Marcus Williams, New Orleans Saints - The Browns could use a big upgrade on the back end, and Williams, at only 24 years old, would be a premium add for a team who finally broke through the playoffs. PFF projects Williams to command a deal around 4-years $57 million, and the Browns would likely have the money to make that happen, sitting tenth in cap space this offseason.

Dallas Cowboys (6-10)

Trade Target: CB Mike Hughes, Minnesota Vikings - Hughes was a first-round pick for the Vikings in 2018, but has not lived up to the billing so far. Dallas is in need of several new faces on its defensive backfield, and perhaps a new situation could be best for Hughes to turn his NFL career around. For Dallas, a cheap flier on defense.
Draft Pick: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama - The Cowboys defense is a mess at many levels, and so picking a premium defensive player like Surtain would be a wise for Dallas to get things straightened out. He's consistently been pegged as the top corner of this draft cycle and makes a lot of sense in Dallas.
Free Agent Signing: DT Dalvin Tomlinson, New York Giants - The Cowboys ranked 31st in total rushing yards surrendered in 2020, meaning they'll need to make it a priority to find a run-stuffer like Dalvin Tomlinson to get their defense back on track. While most teams are geared towards stopping the pass, you simply cannot be as bad in run stopping as Dallas was and expect to be competitive.

Denver Broncos (5-11)

Trade Target: QB Marcus Mariota, Las Vegas Raiders - An inter-divisional trade for a QB seems unlikely, but it's something for both sides to consider. The Broncos need to find a veteran QB to bring in to push QB Drew Lock, who has shown flashes in his first two years but has so far been too inconsistent to commit to long-term.
Draft Pick: EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington - More likely a second-round selection here, the Broncos should consider finding a player to develop into Von Miller's replacement, given all the complications with their star pass-rusher recently. Tryon has a high motor and excellent athleticism to develop across from Bradley Chubb.
Free Agent Signing: CB Quinton Dunbar, Seattle Seahawks - Dunbar was an excellent player for Washington previously, but did not meet expectations after getting moved to the Seahawks. Should he walk in free agency, perhaps putting him under a solid defensive coach like Vic Fangio could help him get back into the strong form that made him a coveted player in 2019.

Detroit Lions (5-11)

Trade Target: A Big Haul for Matt Stafford - We suggest one later on, but Detroit's in a full-on rebuild with Stafford wanting out. Peter King recently reported that at least five teams would be willing to offer their first-rounder for Stafford. Detroit should turn it into a bidding war and land as many draft picks as they can to bolster their rebuilding efforts.
Draft Pick: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State - The Lions are moving on from QB Matthew Stafford after he understandably requested out. With Detroit picking at 7th, there's a very good chance that Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson are all off the board. Thus, unless Detroit makes a bold move up the board, chances are that they go with Lance, who has the potential to be available with their pick. He has plenty of upside to develop into a starting QB behind a veteran QB, say Tyrod Taylor, reuniting with new Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn?
Free Agent Signing: LB Matt Milano, Buffalo Bills - If we were ranking worst position groups in the league, Detroit's LB corps is in strong contention. An outdated group of lethargic old-school thumpers, almost none of Detroit's LB's are capable of playing modern football at a high level. Detroit should invest some cash into someone who is, such as the Bills LB Matt Milano, an excellent backer with range and some ability in coverage.

Green Bay Packers

Trade Target: WR Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys - The Packers wide receivers performed quite well after all the criticism Green Bay received after not bringing in anyone for QB Aaron Rodgers. However, good is the enemy of great, and pairing Gallup with Davante Adams would give Green Bay an elite duo in terms of pass catchers.
Draft Pick: LB Nick Bolton, Missouri - If Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was here as well, I think he could be another strong option, but Bolton is an excellent linebacker who can fill gaps inside and fly from sideline-to-sideline.
Free Agent Signing: CB Gareon Conley, Houston Texans - Like the Falcons listed earlier, the Packers don't have positive cap space at the moment, and thus any free agent additions will likely be bargain bin deals. I like the example that PFF lists in their free agency preview, suggesting Conley could replicate Ronald Darby's return, taking a year deal with the aims of getting things turned around and landing a larger deal after that. An opportunity in Green Bay seems like a good start.

Houston Texans (4-12)

Trade Target: Every Pick they can get from the Jets - Even hiring a veteran coach like Culley to run the show and attempt to repair the relationship with Watson, it seems unlikely to me that Houston holds on, given the issues between Watson and owner Cal McNair. Thus, if forced to deal him, the Texans should aim to land at least three first rounders from a team like the Jets, who could see Watson as a better player than any of the QB's available behind Trevor Lawrence.
Draft Pick: QB Zach Wilson, BYU - This obviously assumes a trade with the Jets sends #2 overall to Houston. If so, Wilson looks like the next best bet behind Lawrence in my opinion. He, along with the boatload of additional assets that would come along in this trade, should be a solid foundation for Culley and co.'s rebuild.
Free Agent Signing: S Malik Hooker, Indianapolis Colts - The Texans will start their rebuild without any cap space, meaning that taking chances on younger guys like Hooker, 24 years old, to potentially find useful pieces is key. If they can land Hooker to play safety for them on a cheap 1-2 year deal, that'd be ideal for Houston.

Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

Trade Target: QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - Easy one here. If the Colts had Stafford in 2020 they probably would have replaced the Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Stafford is only 32 years, meaning he still has a strong 4-5 years left to help the Colts' well-rounded roster make a championship push. Surrendering a first round pick and potentially a 2022 3rd (if there competition from others) is a gamble I'd definitely make if I were Chris Ballard.
Draft Pick: DE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh - Assuming the Colts use their first on the aforementioned Stafford deal, then finding a balanced edge rusher like Jones would be a great move for Indy. With players like Denico Autry and Justin Houston headed to free agency (and getting old), the Colts would get a terror on the edge with a tremendous motor and tools to develop.
Free Agent Signing: WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears - The Colts have a large amount of cap space, second in the league according to OTC's projections. Given that they will need to conserve some of that war chest for internal extensions, they would be wise to replace T.Y. Hilton with a more dominant receiver like Allen Robinson. An offseason adding Matt Stafford and Robinson together should make Frank Reich and Marcus Brady very excited for 2021.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15)

Trade Target: WR Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns - If the Browns are preparing to move on from Beckham Jr., then perhaps sending him down to Jacksonville to pair up with Urban Meyer could help get him playing elite football again. After posting 1,000 yard season in 3 of the previous 4 seasons, an injury once again cut his year short.
Draft Pick: OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State - Not at #1 overall obviously. We all know that will go to QB Trevor Lawrence. However, with the Rams 1st round selection (acquired via the Jalen Ramsey trade), the Jaguars should look to use it on an upgrade to their offensive line in the form of Radunz.
Free Agent Signing: OLB Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Provided new defensive coordinator Joe Cullen brings a Ravens style 3-4 defense with him, then adding a premier OLB like Barrett while K'Lavon Chaisson develops would be a great move for Jacksonville. With the NFL's lead in cap space, Jacksonville could afford Barrett along with some other instant contributors.

Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)

Trade Target: WR Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears - The Chiefs could easily lose WR Sammy Watkins to free agency, leaving an opening for another wideout to join the rotation. Miller has been fairly productive in Chicago, and could be a solid option to join Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in Andy Reid's passing attack.
Draft Pick: G Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC - Vera-Tucker gets mocked to the Chiefs a lot, and it makes perfect sense why. A premier offensive line talent, he has some versatility after playing tackle for the Trojans. While I think his best fit is inside, he'd be an ideal player for Kansas City to add to bolster their protection after investing so much in QB Patrick Mahomes.
Free Agent Signing: C Ted Karras, Miami Dolphins - The Chiefs will also be bargain bin hunting, as they're currently over the cap by $18 million. Thus, a starting caliber center like Ted Karras could prove useful for the defending Super Bowl champs (at this point). Karras signed with the Dolphins for only $3 million last season, and a similar deal with KC could be an absolute bargain when all is said and done.

Las Vegas Raiders (8-8)

Trade Target: DT Akiem Hicks, Chicago Bears - I mentioned Hicks for the Panthers as well, but he'd be a great add for either team, perhaps even more so for the Raiders, who could easily see DT Johnathan Hankins depart in free agency. A disruptive player in the middle, he'd be a nice add in Las Vegas.
Draft Pick: EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia - After shockingly selecting DE Clelin Ferrell at fourth overall in 2019, the Raiders have still been searching for a game changer at DE to go alongside the productive efforts of Maxx Crosby. Ojulari profiles as a high potential pass rusher to scratch that itch for Jon Gruden and co.
Free Agent Signing: S Anthony Harris, Minnesota Vikings - The Raiders may have to get creative to free up the cap space to land Harris, as they're currently over. But if they can do it, he'd be an ideal player to add to the Vegas' defense, now led by defensive coordinator Ken Whisen...uh...Gus Bradley. Harris is an elite free safety who would pair well with Jonathan Abram.

Los Angeles Chargers (7-9)

Trade Target: DT Danny Shelton, Detroit Lions - Shelton struggled in Detroit, but frankly, everyone on Patricia's defense did. Before that, Shelton posted strong results as a 3-4 interior gap-plugger, doing a quality job for both the Browns and Patriots before him. With Linval Joseph on the decline, adding a younger replacement for cheap could be in store.
Draft Pick: G Wyatt Davis, Ohio State - LA needs a couple of new starters on its offensive line, and if the tackles fly off the board before they can get one at 13th overall, then perhaps a top notch guard could also suffice. Davis has been a consistent player for the Buckeyes and projects as an instant impact lineman for someone at the next level.
Free Agent Signing: OT Alejandro Villanueva, Pittsburgh Steelers - A sturdy, veteran left tackle should be a big priority for the Chargers, as the imperative to protect QB Justin Herbert is high. After a breakout season for Herbert, he gives the franchise a ton of optimism under new head coach Brandon Staley. Keeping him upright is something Villanueva would do well at.

Los Angeles Rams (10-6)

Trade Target: QB Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars - The Rams are in a pickle with QB Jared Goff. He has not been a strong point for the team recently, but his contract is a bit too heavy to move right now. Thus, a cheaper way to acquire some genuine competition for Goff could be to trade for the affordable Minshew, a solid starter in his own right. Jacksonville will be bringing in Trevor Lawrence anyways to replace him, so perhaps acquiring a pick or so to send him out could be a wise move.
Draft Pick: EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami - Provided that new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris isn't changing the scheme outright, Roche would be an excellent fit at 3-4 OLB in LAR. He's a dynamic pass rusher with excellent physical traits. If he falls to the Rams in the second-round they shouldn't think twice about selecting him.
Free Agent Signing: LB Jarrad Davis, Detroit Lions - The Rams are another team already over the cap, so not a lot to spend on. However, they could use some help at inside linebacker, and Davis projects to be a relatively cheap piece to take a gamble on. Physically impressive, he's struggled with the mental side of the game. If Morris can get him sorted out, it could be excellent value.

Miami Dolphins (10-6)

Trade Target: WR Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons - The Dolphins will likely have the opportunity to draft a premier wide receiver in the first round, but could also use some of their stockpile to add an established star like Jones. Giving Tua as many options as you can is a wise move.
Draft Pick: RB Najee Harris, Alabama - Reuniting Harris and Tua in a backfield would fill a big need for the Dolphins. Whether taking him with their second selection in the first round or hoping he drops to the second, Miami should get serious about finding a talented running back,
Free Agent Signing: G Joe Thuney, New England Patriots - The Dolphins still have a decent amount of cap space (8th in the league) and could easily use some of that to target an upgrade to the interior of their offensive line by adding Thuney. Thuney crossed paths with Dolphins head coach Brian Flores in New England, and a reunion down south could be profitable for both parties.

Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

Trade Target: DT Tyquan Lewis, Indianapolis Colts - Lewis may not be on the trade block, but the Colts have both defensive tackles locked up ahead of him (Buckner, Grover Stewart). Perhaps they'd consider moving a young, promising 3-technique if Minnesota put together a quality offer for him. He'd instantly fill a need for the Vikings.
Draft Pick: EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami - With the failed Yannick Ngakoue tenure, the Vikings still need to find a premium pass rusher. Rousseau sat out 2020, but was dominant the year before and projects as a highly athletic piece for Zimmer to develop.
Free Agent Signing: OT Matt Feiler, Pittsburgh Steelers - Feiler offers a lot of versatility, which works great for Minnesota, as they could insert Feiler as a starting tackle, or slide G Ezra Cleveland into the LT position and put Feiler in at guard. Either way, a relatively affordable upgrade on the OL.

New England Patriots (7-9)

Trade Target: TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles are another team finding themselves in a less-than-ideal cap situation, and thus, will likely explore moving a top player like Ertz. While the Patriots have drafted a handful of decent role players at TE, they've lacked a player of Ertz's caliber. He'd be a nice upgrade to help whomever the Patriots land at QB.
Draft Pick: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama - It seems unlikely that Devonta Smith or Ja'Marr Chase slip to New England, but I'd imagine they'd be perfectly content with a potential stud like Waddle to bolster their mediocre group of pass catchers. He's a very smooth player with a lot of potential.
Free Agent Signing: QB Andy Dalton, Dallas Cowboys - Dalton got off to a rough start with Dallas in relief of QB Dak Prescott, scoring a total of 13 points in 2 games while throwing 1 touchdown to 3 interceptions. However, he was admirable after that, throwing 13 touchdowns to 5 interceptions while posting a 4-3 record over that stretch. Dalton could be an upgrade over Cam Newton for New England while they hunt for a new franchise QB to replace Tom Brady.

New Orleans Saints (12-4)

Trade Target: Draft Picks for Kwon Alexander, Nick Easton, or Latavius Murray - The Saints game isn't necessarily who they should bring in, but if they can get picks for some players with bloated contracts that they may need to cut. If they can score some late-round picks to move these guys (or others) elsewhere, they need to pull the trigger.
Draft Pick: WR Kadarius Toney, Florida - While it seems like the hype train on Toney has left the station, it'd be incredible if he slipped to the Saints at 28th overall in this draft. An explosive player, he'd be an ideal partner for WR Michael Thomas, giving Taysom Hill or maybe Jameis(?) some excellent weapons.
Free Agent Signing: TE Jacob Hollister, Seattle Seahawks - The Saints, as mentioned, are in cap purgatory. Their signings will be quite minimum once they make the trades, cuts, and restructures required to get them back under the cap. However, one cheaper option could be a solid TE like Hollister, as TE Jared Cook is set to depart. Putting up 25 catches including 3 touchdowns at a price tag a shade over $3 million could be in New Orleans price range.

New York Giants (6-10)

Trade Target: G Gabe Jackson, Las Vegas Raiders - Jackson has been rumored to be available for a little while now. Not yet 30 years old, he's a steady veteran option on the interior of any offensive line and would fit quite well with the Giants.
Draft Pick: WR Devonta Smith, Alabama - If the Dolphins don't take Smith, the Giants certainly should. Ensuring that QB Daniel Jones has the weapons he needs to grow into the franchise QB role is pertinent. Smith is a stud pass catcher and would be an excellent pick if he were on the board at 10th overall.
Free Agent Signing: EDGE Matt Judon, Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens have let a handful of pass rushers walk, and if they do so with Judon this year, the Giants should go get him. While Yannick could also be a Ravens OLB on the market, Judon fits Joe Judge's style a little bit more than Yannick does, and could be available for cheaper, which is important for another cap squeezed team like the Giants.

New York Jets (2-14)

Trade Target: QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - As I do think Justin Fields or Zach Wilson can be good franchise QB's, Watson already is an exceptional one. The Jets should put together a package of picks to go land the beleaguered QB and unite him with Robert Saleh, whom he listed as one of the guys he originally wanted Houston to interview.
Draft Pick: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC - Assuming the Jets send both first-round selections to the Texans in the hypothetical Watson trade, the Jets would still have a premium pick to start off the second-round, one they should use to add a top tier WR like St. Brown who could be a star quickly.
Free Agent Signing: CB William Jackson III, Cincinnati Bengals - If the Bengals can't lock Jackson up to an extension before free agency, the Jets should throw some cash at him to be a foundational piece of Saleh's defense in the Big Apple.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1)

Trade Target: Draft Picks for Zach Ertz, DeSean Jackson, and Alshon Jeffery - Like the Saints, the Eagles probably should focus on offloading bloated contracts rather than bringing anyone in. The cheap rookie contracts that draft picks provide will be needed to steer themselves out of cap purgatory.
Draft Pick: WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU - The Eagles and Chase are an ideal fit, and new head coach Nick Sirianni sure could use the big play ability that Chase provides. Whichever QB ends up getting the start, they'll be happy to have a guy like Chase to throw to.
Free Agent Signing: CB Bashaud Breeland, Kansas City Chiefs - The Eagles have a horrific cap situation themselves, and thus, a lower-end veteran like Breeland can give them a solid starter at an affordable price as the Eagles try and sort out their defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

Trade Target: QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets - The Steelers may have brought in Dwayne Haskins, but frankly I have little faith there. Instead, they should call up the Jets to figure out what Darnold will cost them. One season behind Roethlisberger in his final go could be a great change of pace for Darnold before taking over.
Draft Pick: RB Travis Etienne, Clemson - Everyone is too cool for elite running backs in the wannabe scouting world. But Etienne is a stud, and the Steelers need a big upgrade at running back. If they don't like their options for QB late into the first, they should give serious weight to taking Etienne and landing an elite player rather than reach for a lesser player elsewhere.
Free Agent Signing: G Elijah Wilkinson, Denver Broncos - Wilkinson had a very rough 2019 season, but has been a good deal better in 2020. He's still on the younger end, not even 26 years old, and could be an affordable gamble for Pittsburgh, who also needs to find their way back under the cap ($35 million over).

San Francisco 49ers (6-10)

Trade Target: QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - If the Colts don't land Stafford, the 49ers absolutely should. Pairing Stafford and Kyle Shanahan would be fun to watch, and he'd be a much most consistent player for the 49ers than the oft-injured Jimmy G. It's a big move, but one Shanahan may want to consider to make another championship run.
Draft Pick: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech - If the 49ers don't move for Stafford and keep their first-round selection, they should target a top tier corner like Farley as they have a handful of corners (Sherman, Witherspoon, Williams) set to hit the open market.
Free Agent Signing: DT Shelby Harris, Denver Broncos - The 49ers top priority should be retaining OT Trent Williams, but after that, adding a veteran pass rusher on the interior could be a good move. Harris has been a consistent player for Denver, but has yet to be rewarded with a big opportunity, something he could get here alongside Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead.

Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Trade Target: DT Jonathan Allen, Washington Football Team - I'm not sure the Football Team would move him, but he is on the final year of his deal, and Washington's going to have weigh future deals for DE's Montez Sweat and Chase Young into the equation. If they aren't willing to pony up for three studs on the defensive line, they may look to add some picks in exchange for Allen.
Draft Pick: CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern - A late riser up the board after a stellar junior year in Evanston. Newsome has ideal size (6'1, 190 lbs) for Seattle and could help fill a gap if they have to choose between Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar.
Free Agent Signing: DE Carl Lawson, Cincinnati Bengals - A really good fit here, as the Seahawks very much need some pass-rushing help. Lawson has been an excellent player for the Bengals and could find the chance to compete in the playoffs if he heads west for Seattle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)

Trade Target: QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets - The Bucs are another team that should explore the asking price for Darnold. While Brady is still winning his battle against time, it seems unrealistic to expect it to continue for too much longer. The Bucs could potentially land his heir apparent in Darnold.
Draft Pick: Christian Barmore, Alabama - Between Barmore and Daviyon Nixon, I think both have a case to make as DT1 in this class, but Barmore projects as a bit better fit to Todd Bowles' 3-4 defense than Nixon does. The Bucs add an impact defensive lineman to pair on the inside with Vita Vea, giving them flexibility in replacing Ndamukong Suh.
Free Agent Signing: OLB Tyus Bowser, Baltimore Ravens - The Bucs have a good chunk of cap space available, but will need to prioritize some re-signings like LB Lavonte David, OLB Shaq Barrett, and TE Rob Gronkowski. Thus, they may not have a lot of cash to throw out there after bringing back some of their own. Bowser is a good value to add as a rotational pass rusher, scoring some decent grades from PFF as a backup for Matt Judon and Yannick in Baltimore. An expanded role in Tampa could pay off for both sides.

Tennessee Titans (11-5)

Trade Target: OLB Jacob Martin, Houston Texans - As sad as it is, Martin's 3 sacks in 2020 would have led the team for Tennessee. In a passing era, you need to get after the QB better than the Texans are doing. While team's are hesitant to trade within the division, the Texans should be more focused on acquiring picks to rebuild, which they could get by moving a decent rotational pass-rusher.
Draft Pick: OLB Joseph Ossai, Texas - Really the Titans should be focused on landing a high potential pass-rusher, and Ossai figures to be a hot name in that range. He's a springy pass rusher who can inject some life into one of the league's worst team's at getting to the QB.
Free Agent Signing: WR T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts - After a strong season in 2020, WR Corey Davis seems a bit unlikely to return, as he'll likely fetch more on the market than the Titans can afford to pay him. Thus, they should consider adding a veteran replacement to pair with budding star A.J. Brown at wide receiver.

Washington Football Team (7-9)

Trade Target: QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - Another team I think should really make a push for Watson. It'll cost them at least a 2021 and 2022 first-round pick, along with probably another second and DT Jonathan Allen or some other player. It could definitely cost more than that! But Watson would solidify Washington as the top team in the NFC East for the next few years. With QB and DE locked in with Watson, Sweat, and Young, this could be a potential dynasty in the division.
Draft Pick: OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State - A potential second-round target, Washington should look to find a developmental tackle to eventually slot into their lineup. Morgan Moses and Cornelius Lucas were a solid pairing last year, but both are about to turn 30 years old, and Jenkins has a lot of potential. A year to develop before taking a spot in the starting lineup would ideal for everyone involved.
Free Agent Signing: WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions - Washington managed to build a passing attack out of Terry McLaurin and a handful of role players at RB and TE. While it worked in 2020, it does not seem very sustainable, as Washington should use its cap space to bring in a premier WR to pair with Terry McLaurin. Pairing up McLaurin's speed with Golladay's ability to go win contested balls is an ideal complementary pairing.

Official r/NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting

#	Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.	Chiefs	--	12-1	The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2.	Packers	+2	10-3	There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3.	Bills	+2	10-3	For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4.	Saints	-1	10-3	This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5.	Steelers	-3	11-2	The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6.	Rams	--	9-4	Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7.	Colts	+1	9-4	Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8.	Titans	+1	9-4	Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9.	Seahawks	+1	9-4	Nothing cures ~~suicidal thoughts~~ losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10.	Ravens	+2	8-5	This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11.	Browns	-4	9-4	Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12.	Buccaneers	-1	8-5	The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13.	Dolphins	--	8-5	There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14.	Cardinals	+1	7-6	A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15.	Raiders	-1	7-6	The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16.	Washington FT	+3	6-7	Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17.	Vikings	--	6-7	Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18.	Bears	+5	6-7	The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19.	Patriots	-3	6-7	Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20.	49ers	-2	5-8	The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21.	Broncos	+5	5-8	Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22.	Giants	-2	5-8	It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23.	Falcons	-1	4-9	Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24.	Panthers	-3	4-9	I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25.	Eagles	+3	4-8-1	Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26.	Lions	-1	5-8	Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27.	Chargers	--	4-9	First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28.	Texans	-4	4-9	The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29.	Cowboys	--	4-9	The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30.	Bengals	--	2-10-1	Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31.	Jaguars	--	1-12	This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32.	Jets	--	0-13	The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.

The chances of any male aged 15-39 starting for a team in their national domestic league - an analysis of 11 Leagues.

Yesterday I commented on how you had a 1.43% chance of starting for a domestic Icelandic side if you were a male aged 15-39 using quickmaths^TM .
It got me thinking about other small nations and the likelihood of starting for a team in your own national league if you’re a man of playing age.

The Assumptions

To get a rough estimate, I need to make several sweeping generalisations.
Assumption 1) It’s just men.
Despite exceptions like Yuki Nagasato and Ellen Fokkema, I’ll calculate solely from the amount of men in a nation that are between 15-39.
Assumption 2) It’s every man.
I don’t care if you hate football, if you’ve got a condition preventing you from playing football, or if you’re registered as a citizen of your country but live elsewhere, you’re getting included. Likewise, this means those who live in one nation but are a citizen of another won’t be included.
Assumption 3) Starting XIs can only be comprised of 15-39 year olds.
I know many 40+ year old players will be out there, but this demographic would match the general career of top footballers. I’ll use population pyramids to get the amount of men in this demographic. Pyramids tend to move in 5 year increments so 15-39 is the most fair range I can think of.
Assumption 4) All teams are independent from each other.
Inaccurate I know, but if I was calculating for Spain, I’d be counting Barcelona and Barcelona B as two separate clubs. If there is an easy way to separate the reserve teams from the rest, I won't include them (as you’ll see, I’m quite loose with this assumption).

Method

Find out how many men aged 15-39 are in a country. Divide that by the number of teams in their domestic league. Divide that figure by 11. 1 Divided by this answer and multiplied by 100 will give the % chance of a random male aged 15-39 being in the starting 11 for a team any given matchday.
Formula:
M/T=X
X/11=Y
1/Y=Z
Z x 100 = % chance.
(M = men, T = teams)

Limitations

Lots. I’m not trying to be too serious here. As I’ve said, I’m not factoring in people who can’t play, people who have moved out of the country, players who have come in from a different country etc…
Recordkeeping at lower league levels is hard so even the amount of clubs in a league system is a bit shoddy. Some of the population pyramids are marked poorly so I’ll have to guesstimate as best as I can.

Leagues to look at

These are the 11 domestic leagues I’ll look at. Each of these countries/territories are FIFA recognised. Why these 11? They were all on the lower end of FIFA rankings and population number.

Andorra
Faroe Islands
Gibraltar
Liechtenstein
Luxembourg
Monserrat
New Caledonia
San Marino
St.Kitts and Nevis
Tahiti
Turks and Caicos Islands

So, in order from lower to higher chance…

New Caledonia

Linguistically, New Caledonia is almost identical to Nova Scotia. Climatewise, they’re complete (but not polar) opposites. New Caledonia is neither an overseas region nor an overseas collectivity of France but lies in its own legislative niche in the southwest Pacific Ocean. The 70s was their golden age, with a win over New Zealand and scoring 3 against Bulgaria (only to concede 5). More recently they drew 1-1 against Estonia in 2017.
Their top division contains 12 teams, with a secondary division which contains up to 13 teams in any given season.
A 2019 population pyramid gives me an M number of 54032.
M = 54032 T = 25
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 0.51%.
My favourite domestic team: AS Magenta. They got to the Oceania Champions League Final in 2005, losing to Sydney FC.

Turks and Caicos Islands

A British overseas territory in the Caribbean, the wonderfully named Cockburn Town is it’s capital (pronounced cohw-burn like it’s Edinburgh Street counterpart). Horatio Nelson suffered a rare defeat of the coast of the islands in the 1780s and John Glenn landed near the islands in 1962 after his first spaceflight. Their national team hasn’t achieved much with only one World Cup qualifying win (which they lost on aggregate in the return leg).
Their domestic league has had up to 18 teams in the past, but last season only had 6 in their premier division. This number is fluid so the T number will be between 6-18.
A 2018 population pyramid brought the M number to c.12,200
M = 12200 T = 6-18
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 0.54-1.62%
My favourite domestic team: If you think Red Bull is bad for corporate branding, 2-time league champions KPMG United FC were a strong team in the mid 2000s. In 2006 they changed their name, and won another league title under the new name PWC Athletic.

Tahiti

Tahiti is the largest island in French Polynesia, but FIFA recognises it as a separate footballing nation. Lyle Lanley famously swindled the town of Springfield and fled toward Tahiti. Before he got there however, he was attacked by the inhabitants of North Haverbrook. Tahiti beat the Cook Islands 30-0 in 1971. You might remember Tahiti from the 2013 confederations cup where they played Spain, Uruguay, and Nigeria. They scored 1 and conceded 24 giving them the worst GD of any national team in any major competition.
There are 2 tiers to the Tahiti domestic league, these contain 32 clubs (+14 reserve teams that I won’t count).
A population pyramid for Tahiti is impossible to find, as it is a subregion of French Polynesia. Nevertheless, you can be from any of the other islands and still represent Tahiti. This calculation from a 2020 population pyramid gives me an M number of 52931
M = 52931 T = 32
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 0.67%
My favourite domestic team: It is a tie between AS Excelsior and AS Dragon. Combining them would give the league a mythical allure.

Luxembourg

Luxembourg have been improving rapidly internationally. They beat Hungary in 2017 and they drew 0-0 with France less than a year before France became world champions. Real glory was bestowed upon them in 1980 they reached the semi-finals of the Indonesian Marah Halim Cup where they eventually lost to a Burmese XI.
Luxembourg have 5 tiers in their domestic league. These 5 tiers are home to a massive 104 teams.
A 2019 population pyramid shows Luxembourg having 109,701 males in the relevant age bracket. I clearly underestimated Luxembourg’s population.
M = 109,701 T = 104
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.04%
My favourite domestic team: FC Yellow Boys Weiler-la-Tour. What a name. 500pax capacity stadium. They play in the 2nd division which is also known as The Division of Honour. Their primary rivalry is with FC Blue Boys Muhlenbach and FC Red Boys Aspelt with a secondary rivalry against FC Green Boys 77 Harlange-Tarchamps.

Liechtenstein

One of the few double-landlocked countries in the world (they are landlocked as are their bordering countries), Liechtenstein squeezes in between Switzerland and Austria. Their national side signalled the beginning of the end of Jack Charlton’s Irish tenure when they held Ireland to a 0-0 draw in 1995. Ireland went on to get 3 points from a possible 12 and missed out on Euro 96. In 2011 it took until the 97th minute for Scotland to beat Liechtenstein.
The 7 football teams that are based in Liechtenstein all play in the Swiss domestic league. This stretches from FC Vaduz in the top division, to FC Schaan who play in the 8th tier.
The most recent population pyramid I could find was from 2015. No worries. I’ll calculate the M number from the 10-34 age range here instead of the 15-39. In this way it is a slightly more accurate, but still really flawed figure. This number comes to a suspiciously specific 5473
M = 5473 T = 7
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.41%
My favourite domestic team: FC Vaduz. I’ve been to Vaduz. It was hot and expensive. While there, I caught a glimpse of Pak Kwang-Ryong, their star striker who has been the North Korean footballer of the year in 2013. Previously he scored against Spurs in 2011.

St.Kitts and Nevis

Saint Kitts and Nevis is a dual island nation in the Caribbean. Neil deGrasse Tyson takes his middle name from his Nevis born grandmother. Founding father of the USA, Alexander Hamilton, was also born on Nevis. As for St Kitts, Marcus Rashford has a Kittitian grandmother. St Kitts and Nevis got to within one round of qualifying for the 2006 World Cup and are the only Caribbean side to beat a European team, when they defeated Andorra in 2015.
The Saint Kitts and Nevis domestic league is split across two tiers and I can find evidence of 14 teams.
A 2018 population pyramid gives me a rough M number of 9,700.
M = 9700 T = 14
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.59%
My favourite domestic team: Village Superstars FC. The 7 times league champions have earned their title.

Andorra

Nestled in the Pyrenees, the Andorran national side are the perennial whipping boys of every European and World Cup qualifying cycle. In 2001 they took the lead against Ireland (but conceded 2 in the next two minutes). Albania and Hungary are among the teams that have lost to Andorra previously.
Domestically, clubs play in the Primera and Segona Divisió. I found many defunct clubs but from what I can see, there are currently 18 active clubs in Andorra
The most recent population pyramid I could find was from 2018. Using this data, I calculated that there are c.11,900 males aged 15-39 in Andorra.
M = 11900 T = 18
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.66%
My favourite domestic team: FC Andorra. The biggest side. Based in the capital. Named after the country but have never played in the domestic league. They play in Spain. They weren’t included in the calculation.

Faroe Islands

The Faroe Islands did the double over Greece in Euro 2016 qualifying. They’ve also beaten Iceland and Lithuania in the past. The beautiful rugged North Atlantic archipelago voted for independence in 1946 but this result was annulled by the Danes. 2 years later they were granted extensive home rule.
Like Andorra, there are 18 official clubs (There are 4 divisions in Andorra with the bottom ones being exclusively populated by reserve teams. I’ve only counted non-reserve teams in brazen defiance of my 4th assumption).
Again, the most recent population pyramid was from 2018. I found c.8800 15-39 year old males.
M = 8800 T = 18
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 2.25%
My favourite domestic team: B36 Tórshavn. A great run saw them reach the 3rd qualifying round of the Europa League this season, eventually losing out to CSKA Sofia

Gibraltar

Gibraltar has been a FIFA member since 2016. They’ve beaten Armenia, Latvia, Liechtenstein, and San Marino since becoming FIFA members. Their 2 tier national league is currently home to 17 clubs (2 recently disbanded).
Their 2018 population pyramid showed roughly 5600 eligible males living in Gibraltar.
M = 5600 T = 17
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 3.34%
My favourite domestic team: Lincoln Red Imps. They went 1,959 days unbeaten in the domestic league from 2009-2014. Followed up in 2016 with a win over Celtic. Not content with only one Old Firm scalp, they played Rangers this season but got smashed 5-0.

San Marino

One of two states completely enveloped by Italy, San Marino will be remembered for their 1993 match against England when they scored after 8.3 seconds and then went on to concede 7. On the other end of the 90 minutes, they scored an 87th minute equaliser against Ireland only to concede again in the 95th minute in 2007. Turkey, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Gibraltar, and Estonia are the only teams to have ever dropped points against San Marino. A 1-0 win over Liechtenstein in a 2004 friendly remains their only win to date.
The league system in San Marino comprises of 15 teams in two conferences (there is no relegation/promotion). The Sammarinese league is rated 55/55 regarding UEFA Coefficients.
I found a 2016 population pyramid, so like Liechtenstein, I shifted the data to 10-34 year olds for this M number. The number here was c.4800
M = 4800 T = 15
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 3.44% chance
My favourite domestic team: A.S. San Giovanni. The only team from San Marino that has never won anything domestically. They have a downright wacky poorly translated history on Wikipedia which only endeared them to me more.

Monserrat

A volcanic British Overseas Territory in the Caribbean. Due to huge eruptions that started in 1995, more than half of the island is uninhabitable. Many indentured Irish servants were brought to Monserrat which has left a noticeable impression on the demographics of the island. Riley, O'Brien, Farrell, Ryan, and Meade are some of the more prominent surnames on Monserrat. The 'Black Irish' of Monserrat is something that has often been reported on.
Monserrat routinely featured at the foot of the FIFA rankings for many years. On the day of the 2002 World Cup Final, Monserrat played Bhutan in what was called ‘The Other World Cup Final’ as it was between the two bottom ranked sides. Bhutan won 4-0 which was their first ever international win.
Monserrat has had an unstable league system due to constant volcanic eruptions. Teams come and go quite frequently. There are at least 5 times and at most 12, so the T number will be 5-12
With a tiny population, the Monserrat M number is only 1240.
M = 1240 T = 5-12
Chances of starting for a domestic team: 4.44%-9.68%
My favourite domestic team: Oh the Montserratian team names are amazing. Montserrat Volcano Observatory Tremors or the Seven Day Adventists Trendsetters would be my top picks.

Bonus

The Vatican City

The not FIFA recognised, home to so many skewed per capita records, I thought I’d include the Vatican just out of curiosity.
The Vatican actually has an internal domestic league, The Vatican City Championship, with 8 teams. The teams are comprised between the staff of the police, the newspapers, the library, and other administrative bodies. The pope is yet to line up for any of the sides. The league also has a cup competition, The Vatican Supercoppa
The only population pyramid I found was poor and unsourced. As there are minimal women living in the Vatican, It’s safe to assume almost all of the 825 residents are male. As it’s difficult to find age breakdowns, I’ll include every person living in the Vatican as my M number.
M = 825 T = 8
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 10.70%
TL;DR

Domestic League	% chance
New Caledonia	0.51
Turks and Caicos Islands	0.54-1.62
Tahiti	0.67
Luxembourg	1.04
Liechtenstein	1.41
St.Kitts and Nevis	1.59
Andorra	1.66
Faroe Islands	2.25
Gibraltar	3.34
San Marino	3.44
Monserrat	4.44-9.68
The Vatican¹	10.70

¹ Not FIFA recognized.

Conclusion

Want your son to have the best chance of being in a starting XI? You better move to Monserrat. If you’re European and don’t want to move too far maybe San Marino is your best bet.
Of course if you were just looking to get into a matchday squad,you could roughly double the percentage.
There are around 200 countries in the world and I only looked at 5% of them. I’m sure there are other ones with better ratios out there but quite frankly, I’m too lazy.
Thanks for reading!
Sources:
Population pyramids:
https://www.populationpyramid.net/
https://www.theodora.com/
Club numbers:
www.wikipedia.org for general info and then the citations on wikipedia for a more detailed look.
https://int.soccerway.com/
www.FIFA.com

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Game Matchups Preview Playoff Round #1: Bills vs. Colts

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 17th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Colts. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long be prepared, this is the longest post I have written by a large amount. If this is your first time reading, I hope you enjoy and can find the time to finish the whole thing.
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Colts’ Passing Defense
Trivia, which QBs finished 2020 Top 5 in all the following categories; Completion %, Pass Yards, Pass TDs, Pass 1st Downs, Pass Y/A, Passer Rating, and QBR? Josh Allen, that’s it, that’s the entire list. Allen’s remarkable season is one that quieted a lot of skeptics in 2020, most of whom were rightly skeptical, and will likely earn him one of the most lucrative contracts in NFL history. The massive improvements by the Bills’ QB were amplified by a dominate group of receivers with unique skill sets. Stefon Diggs is arguably the best all around WR in the NFL right now, Cole Beasley is the best Slot WR in the NFL, John Brown is an oft-overlooked weapon about to be unleashed, Gabe Davis is one of the more promising young offensive weapons in the NFL, and Isaiah McKenzie is a human Swiss Army Knife that consistently expands the box. The Bills have one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the passing attack is the primary reason why.
Against the Colts the Bills’ Pass Offense will need to find a way to deal with an offshoot of the popular Cover 2 scheme. At a high-level Cover 2 is a zone scheme with two deep safeties. In the first few games of the season the Bills rarely saw two deep safety sets with teams testing Josh Allen’s ability to hit the deep ball, but after torching opposing offenses over that span future opposition took note and shifted multiple players deep in order to avoid a barrage of big throws by the Bills. The Colts’ Defensive Coordinator, Matt Eberflus, is an expert of this concept and also a sub concept known as Tampa 2. YouTuber Zach Hicks has a good breakdown of this concept if you want to see it in video format, but at a high level Tampa 2 is the same as a Cover 2 except that on a pass play one of the LBs is generally responsible for the deep middle of the field meaning 3 players are generally protecting against the deep ball. What makes the Colts so proficient at this type of defense is a well-rounded 2nd level that starts with a superstar at LB.
Have you heard of Darius Leonard? If not, you are about to. This “Maniac” was named first team All-Pro his rookie season after being drafted 36th overall by the Colts in the 2018 NFL Draft. Coming into this analysis I had Leonard marked as an incredible run defender with quite possibly the best instincts in the NFL but after watching some film on this guy I realized he is also one of the best zone defending LBs there is. In 2019 Leonard had 5 Interceptions, 4 of which came as the middle zone defender and 1 while man covering an RB. Against the Bills Leonard will be especially dangerous due to his exceptional abilities as a QB spy that when coupled with his instincts and zone coverage capabilities makes him as close to a perfect Josh Allen counter as you will find. This will be the determining factor in whether or not the Colts will be able to slow down the Bills’ vaunted passing attack, slow that down and the Colts will win this running away.
Behind Leonard is a solid stable of DBs, all of whom will provide unique challenges for the Bills. The primary outside corner is former Minnesota Vikings 1st rounder Xavier Rhodes who has built an 8-year career off being an exceptionally physical corner. Rhodes excels most with his hands on a receiver so even in the Colts’ Cover 2 expect him to press the WR lined up in front of him. The other outside position is predominantly controlled by 2nd year CB Rock Ya-Sin but because of an injury he will miss Saturday’s game and be replaced by 30-year old T.J. Carrie. While less talented than Rhodes, Carrie plays a similar style and within the Colts’ defense is playing the best football of his 7-year career. But the most dangerous CB on the Colts’ roster is their slot CB, one of the best in the NFL, Kenny Moore. Moore has exceptional instincts and out of the slot can read his primary responsibility while simultaneously providing help to his outside CBs. The last portion of this secondary are the safeties, Julian Blackmon and Khari Willis, both of whom can force game changing plays in the event any opposing QB tries to test them over the top.
With the key to the Bills’ offense being their ability to move the ball through the air this matchup could ultimately determine the first round of the playoffs. Diggs, Brown, and Davis will all be pressed by outside CBs who they will need to beat if the Bills even want to consider taking a deep shot. In the slot it remains to be seen if Cole Beasley will be good to go, though it is looking promising, but regardless if the slot is him, Stills, McKenzie, or even Roberts all may struggle against Kenny Moore. Brian Daboll will need to come prepared with his best playbook to beat this defense while all the weapons will need to execute if the Bills intend to host another playoff game.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Colts’ Rushing Defense
89 times this season a player has rushed for 100+ yards in a game. Out of the 32 NFL teams only 4 of them did not have such a player, the Panthers, Chargers, Seahawks…and Bills. A stunning turn of events for a Bills’ team that has not finished outside the Top 10 in rushing yards since 2014 has seen them fall to 20th this season averaging just 107.7 Y/G. And don’t blame the shift to a pass first offense as the primary reason for this as the Bills’ rank 19th in Y/A at just 4.2 with their top two RBs, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, at just 4.4 and 4.3 respectively. I’ve wrote about this in past “Matchup Preview” posts, that the issue is best described by the fact that out of the 51 NFL players with 100+ rushing attempts Devin Singletary ranks 49th (1.5) and Zack Moss ranks 43rd (1.8) in Yards Before Contact (YBC). This points to two root causes; RBs not hitting the hole fast enough or poor OL blocking, and while I believe both are part of the problem to me it is the latter that is the predominant issue.
The Colts run a 4-3 scheme meaning in their base package there are 4 DL and 3 LB but with the current state of the NFL most teams “Base” is actually their Nickel Package (1 LB is replaced by a DB). This is important to note in the context of the Bills running the ball because with the Colts predominately in Nickel the Bills may have success running the ball outside the tackles. To help visualize what it will look like picture the package where Tremaine Edmunds is flanked by one of A.J. Klein or Matt Milano. Ultimately this presents a situation where a defense becomes fully reliant on their DEs maintaining contain so that their LBs can scrape down the line and make a play on the ball carrier. In the worst case, where contain is blown and LBs can’t get to the ball carrier, a defenses reliance shifts to their CBs coming off a WR block or a safety coming down field and making a tackle in the open field. The Colts have the players in the secondary to accomplish this which is one reason why they are one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
While this section lends itself to be just another breakdown of Darius Leonard, he was covered in detail in the passing section of this post so instead the the emphasis here is on the Colts’ DL. This is a DL which is headlined by ex-49er, the 2016 #7 overall pick DeForest Buckner. While Buckner primarily excels as a Pass Rusher (9.5 Sacks this Season) he is also a great run defender capable of using his large frame (6’7”, 240lb) and a great stable of moves to wreak havoc against the run. Next to him at Nose Tackle is Grover Stewart the 4th year man out of Albany State. Stewart plays and looks more massive than his 315lb listing and is meant to be a plug in the middle that takes up 2 interior linemen. On the outside is a 4-man rotation (In order of Snap %) of Denico Autry, Justin Houston, Al-Quadin Muhammad, and Tyquan Lewis. Autry and Houston are vets that primarily rush the passer while Muhammad and Lewis excel more against the run. Yet, the more you look at this DL and their rotations the more you come to realize it is eerily similar to the Bills, albeit a more successful version against the run.
Running the ball against the Colts will be a tough task for this Bills’ team as the Colts rank 2nd in the NFL in Rush Y/A Against (3.7) while playing the likes of Dalvin Cook, the Ravens, Derrick Henry (x2), and Josh Jacobs. Most the of praise is owed to Leonard, and MLB Anthony Walker, but the whole of the defense is a highly disciplined unit that consistently does their 1/11th in order to dominate the defensive side of the ball. The one area where the Bills may be able to expose the Colts is via a run that is technically a pass, the McKenzie “Push Pass”. I expect this play to be run multiple times on Saturday and if I were to set an OveUnder on it I’d give out 2.5. Running this to the opposite side of Buckner should find success and if it does should slow down the outside pass rush of the Colts.
EDGE: Colts 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Colts’ Passing Offense
Coming into this analysis I hypothesized that a reason for the Bills’ struggles against the pass was that teams were throwing against the Bills far more in 2020 than they had in previous seasons. After all, the Bills’ offense was so prolific this season that more often than in a long-time, teams were playing from behind against the Bills. Turns out the 573 Passing Attempts against the Bills this season was only 20 more than the 553 from 2019 and remarkably the same number of pass attempts against as 2017. Digging deeper I found that even though the Bills had given up the same number of 300 yard passing games in 2020 (5) that they had from 2017 to 2019 their Passer Rating against was not drastically different. In fact their passer ratings against over the past 4 seasons were; 78.9 (2017), 82.6 (2018), 78.8 (2019), and 86.9 (2020) while the league wide Passer Rating over the same span followed a similar trend being 86.9 (2017), 92.9 (2018), 90.4 (2019), and 93.6 (2020). Turns out the Bills’ pass defense didn’t really regress all too much and in fact is still one of the most dominant units in the NFL, peaking at the perfect time.
And in the first round of the playoffs the Bills will play a team which I describe as a Run First team that really likes to throw the ball. What does that mean exactly? The Colts did run the ball (459) less than they passed (552) so doesn’t that make them a pass first team? Technically yes, but with only 371 of those passes being completed and 114 of those going to RBs the Colts either ran or had an RB touch the ball on an astounding 69% of “completed” offensive plays. For context the leading rusher in the NFL was Derrick Henry of the Titans where they ran or had an RB touch the ball on just 66.8% of those plays. Moral of this all is exactly what was stated, Run First but love to pass, but make no mistake about it, when the Colts need to air the ball out, they do have some weapons to do so.
The Colts have 3 good WRs and 3 solid TEs giving them high level depth in the passing game. By now every NFL fan knows T.Y. Hilton who has been one of the best deep threats in the NFL for just under a decade and though 31 still put up over 750 yards with a 13.6 Y/R in 2020. Opposite him is Zach Pascal who is in the 3rd year of his career and while unlike T.Y. in stature, coming in at 6’2” 215lb, is like him in that he is primarily a deep threat at this point in his career. The last WR of note is by far the most intriguing, 2nd round rookie Michael Pittman Jr. A player that was at times mocked to the Bills, Pittman is a massive receiver at 6’4” 225lb and has 4.5s 40yd speed. At moments he has looked unguardable for the Colts in 2020 but has a long way to go to reach his full potential, though he seems fully capable of it. At TE the Colts’ 3-man rotation is Jack Doyle, Mo Allie-Cox, and Trey Burton. Each of them is 6’2” 230lb or bigger and have at least 20 receptions with the 3 of them accounting for a total of 82 catches. These guys aren’t’ just redzone threats either, though they do account for 8 TDs, they are also big-time weapons in the middle of the field moving the sticks a combined 46 times.
Throwing all those guys the ball will be the walking HOF-litmus test, Phillip Rivers. At 39 years old he has without a doubt lost a bit of zip on his throws but still was able to put up over 4000 passing yards and complete 68% of his passes. One very interesting stat of note is that Rivers, and the Colts, has only played 3 outdoor games north of Tennessee this season. In those games Rivers completed 60.4% of his passes, had a 2:3 TD:INT Ratio, and a passer rating of 81.2. In all other games Rivers completed 69.6% of his passes, had a 22:8 TD:INT Ratio, and a passer rating of 100.4. Needless to say the weather in Buffalo will have a major impact on the outcome of the game Saturday but if you don’t think Tre White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and the rest of the Bills’ secondary will also have an impact, well…just wait.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Colts’ Rushing Offense
The Buffalo Bills’ ability to stop the run will ultimately be the reason they have a successful or unsuccessful playoff run. If you believe in Dualism the Buffalo Bills’ run defense should improve your ability to debate it. The Bills have had 8 (5-3) games where the opponent rushed for 100+ yards, for an average of 167.6, and 8 (8-0) games where the opponent has rushed for under 100 yards, for an average of 71.6 Y/G. The crazy thing about this is that there is no tangible pattern, not competition, not location of game, not injuries, the Bills are simply just really good or really bad against the run. This week they can’t afford to be bad against it.
To fully understand just how integral RBs are to the Colts’ offense see the analysis of their Pass Offense above. This Colts’ team by all measures had 4 solid RBs rostered going into the start of the 2020 season with Marlon Mack, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, and Jordan Wilkins but when Mack popped his ACL in Week 1 the Colts were forced to scramble. Over the next few weeks, they would rely most on rookie Jonathan Taylor to carry the load on the ground but saw mixed results. By Week 8 Wilkins was out carrying Taylor and by Week 10 both Wilkins and Hines were. And then something happened, and this something happened to the Colts’ play calls and to Taylor who quickly shifted into the monster from Wisconsin. Over his final 6 games Taylor rushed 119 times (19.8 G) for 741 (123.5 Y/G) which is a Y/A of 6.2. At the end of the day Taylor is who a lot of draft experts thought he would be, a dominant all around back that can single handedly change games. Don’t get it twisted though Bills Mafia, Nyheim Hines will also play an integral role for the Colts’ offense on Saturday.
But the talent at RB is one thing, the talent on the OL is a whole different monster. Working from right to left this week at RT is Braden Smith a 2nd round pick that has been a 3-year starter for the Colts. Smith is a freak of a human at 6’6” 315lb giving him the ability to toss opposing defenders around at will though the one knock on him is his slow dissection of incoming blitzes. At RG is Mark Glowinski a 6-year vet who like Braden Smith has power to spare but lacks elite quickness, yet he still exceeds the description of proficient RG. Then there are the big boys. At Center is Ryan Kelly who just earned his 2nd consecutive Pro Bowl nod as one of the best Centers in the NFL. An incredible blocking center and a master of dissecting opposing defenses Ryan Kelly is not only himself great, but he also makes the QB under him and the OL to the left and right of him better every single play. LG Quenton Nelson. 3 years into his career, 3 Pro Bowls, 2 All-Pros (and possibly a 3rd on the way), is it absurd to call a player a HOF 3 years into his career? Not for Nelson. This kid is a monstrosity that will control not only who is in front of him, but he will throw that man back into an LB like they are a rag doll. So, the Colts have 4 good to incredible OL, until we get to their LT. Starting LT Anthony Castonzo hit IR after an ankle injury in practice on Christmas Eve and was replaced by retired Jared Veldheer against the Jaguars. This is the only question mark for the Colts’ OL but if Veldheer can even play at 75% of his pre-retirement level he should provide suitable protection on the left side of the line.
The old adage is control the trenches and you control the game. While I 100% agree with that statement I don’t think that is the key to this matchup. Whatever the Bills’ DL looks like this week will obviously need to do their job up front and make a play or two, and I’m especially excited to see what Ed Oliver and A.J. Epenesa will do this week. For me though, the LBs and Jordan Poyer are the entire key to this matchup. I fully expect Poyer in the box more often this game than we have seen all season allowing the Bills to put their Best Big Nickel (Foot) forward. Stop the run in whatever way you can and force Rivers to beat you through the air means the Bills will be stunting at whatever gap they can to force the young Taylor to try to bounce to an opening. For me this game will not determine my feelings on Tremaine Edmunds but will go a long way in deciding his future. Edmunds must make multiple big plays this week, and if he does, I’d fully expect McDermott to hand him the game ball regardless of how the offense plays.
EDGE: Colts 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Colts’ Special Teams
It is officially no longer hyperbole to say that the Buffalo Bills have the best Special Teams group in the NFL. The Bills’ primary return man, Andre Roberts (Pro Bowl, #1-NFL Kick Y/R, #7-NFL Punt Y/R) got a rest on Sunday resulting in backup return man, Isaiah McKenzie, bringing a punt 84 yards to the house for the Bills. That was the Bills first Punt Return TD since Marcus Thigpen did so on December 14, 2014. At Punter is the Bills’ second most improved player of 2020, Corey Bojorquez. Of punters who played all 16 games Bojo finished with the least punts (41) but lead the league in Punt Average (50.8), had the longest punt in the NFL (72), and finished 5th in Net Punt Average (44.0). Outside of one bad punt against the Cardinals, Bojo had just about as good as season as a punter can have. Last is the single season record holder for Points by a Buffalo Bills’ player, rookie Kicker Tyler Bass. Bass drilled 57 of 59 PATs (Possibly 58) and 28 of 34 FGs finishing the season with 141 points. It is also worth noting that the Bills finished 7th in the NFL in Opponent Average Drive Start (Own 26.6) primarily because of Bass’ ability to control the location of his high arced kicks resulting in the NFL’s second-best Kick Y/R Against (17.9). Bass is just another weapon on a team filled with them.
The Colts also have one of the better special teams’ groups in the NFL. The Colts go about returns differently than the Bills using one player primarily for Kicks and another primarily for Punts. Handling Kick Returns is 2020 6th round pick Isaiah Rodgers who is averaging 28.8 Y/R which includes a 101-yard return for a TD in Week 5. Small in stature at 5’10, 170lb Rodgers has barn burning speed (4.28 40yd) and has the ability to return kicks for big yardage which may alter the Bills’ “Short-Kick” strategy on Saturday. Handling Punts is dynamic RB Nyheim Hines who has a Y/R of 10.0 and a long of just 26 implying consistent positive gains on Punt Returns. Punting for the Colts is Rigoberto Sanchez, who also handles kickoffs, ranks 14th in Punt Average (46.2) and 19th in Punt Net Average (40.0) giving up just 7.5 Y/R. At kicker for the Colts is another rookie, Rodrigo Blankenship. Blankenship is having a similar season to Bass missing just 5 FGs and 2 XPs but looks to be a kicker that will spend a long time in the NFL.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏
Why We Will Lose
The Colts matchup surprisingly well against the Buffalo Bills, probably more so than they would have against any other team in the AFC playoffs, outside of maybe the Browns. On defense the Colts should without a doubt stop the Bills’ RBs from moving the ball on the ground which means the Bills’ ability to score points will come down to how often Josh Allen and the Bills’ receivers can beat the Colts’ secondary. More importantly for the Colts is how many turnovers their defense, which ranks 5th in Takeaways, can force. With the way that Josh Allen and the Bills are playing right now it seems the only way to beat them is to take the ball away from them and keep it away, the Colts can do that.
On offense the matchup is even better for the Colts. The Bills struggle against the run and while they have at times shown the ability to successfully defend against it their inconsistency will be a problem against one of the hottest RBs in the NFL, Jonathan Taylor. Colts’ fans know that they will be getting some yardage on the ground and while how much, and how many TDs, remains to be seen the consistent movement of the ball in this fashion is paramount. If successful, the Colts will take time off the clock and keep the ball away from Josh Allen. In the event the Colts must throw the ball they will likely be testing the Bills’ LBs with throws to their TEs and RBs allowing them to avoid the Bills’ highly talented secondary. All of this spells points for Indy, less time for the Bills’ offense, and the possibility of stealing this game in Buffalo.
Why We Will Win
Talk about broken records? “The Buffalo Bills are the more talented football team” Saturday. How many times did we get to say that in 2020? On offense it really hasn’t mattered the talent level of the defense in front of the Bills; Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox, Lee Smith, Reggie Gilliam…Ok I’ll stop but they have all shredded opposition through the air. And let’s not forget the RBs, sure the Bills have struggled on the ground this season but have flashed big play potential with both Zack Moss and Devin Singletary and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them has another Saturday. This offense will put up points regardless of who is on the other side of the ball and have proven that time in time again this season.
On defense here is the deal, the Bills should completely stymie Phillip Rivers in the cold air of Buffalo. When I say “stymie”, I mean that when he must throw the Bills should be all over the ball and if he tries to fit one in a tight window take it away. I’ll put money on it that the Bills have at least one interception Saturday and might even drop the same bet on two because the Colts will HAVE to throw the ball. When they can avoid throwing, they will run and run again which is something Bills’ fans should be fearful of. But remember those 6 games where Jonathan Taylor had success which we discussed in the Colts’ Rushing Offense section of this post? The 6 defenses he played over that span ranked 18th (GNB), 30th (HOU), 28th (LVR), 30th (HOU), 5th (PIT), and 24th (JAX) by Run Defense DVOA. The Buffalo Bills rank better than all but one of those teams coming in at 17. This is the Bills’ game to win.
Prediction: Bills 31 – Colts 20
When the Bills made the playoffs last season, I predicted they would win the game, and they should have. But that team was different than this one. This team isn’t coming to the playoffs to win just one game, this team is angry, this team is afraid of no one, and they are the hottest team in the NFL. This year there’s no “Foot off the pedal”, there’s no “Worrying about Common Sense”, there’s no Overtime. There’s just a Buffalo Bills’ team that wants much more than a “Fine and Dandy” hat and shirt. Your Buffalo Bills are coming for everyone and everything and it all starts on Saturday with 6700 fans greeting them in a stadium that will sound like it has 100,000 in it. Paraphrasing the great Steve Tasker, buckle up Colts, “It might be Chilly”.
EDIT 1: Corrected Titans to Colts in Bills Rushing Offense section (Thank you some_random_noob)

A guide for the upcoming Copa Libertadores final between Santos and Palmeiras

Hey fellas, as some of you may know, January 30th will see two Brazilian sides deciding the next Libertadores in a single game at nothing less than the legendary Maracanã Stadium.
Given that most of the sub doesn’t really follow South American football but are probably interested in such a hyped match, I thought it’d be nice to write up a little guide on the history of both teams in the competition, how and why they got to the final this year, and what players could tip the balance on such a big stage. This first part ended up way longer than I expected, so I guess it’s better to make this into a 2-part post. I’ll post the rest sometime this next week. Sorry about my poor English sometimes!
Santos in Libertadores - We could have more
Considering the power and fame of the 1960s Santos squad, one could expect them to have lifted continental glory more than twice in that period. After steamrolling two back-to-back Libertadores, in 1962 and 1963, the team of Pelé, Vavá, Coutinho, Mengálvio and others didn’t win another cup until 2011, with a 20-year old Neymar as their brightest star. In 1964, Pelé was injured against the Argentinian Independiente. In 1965, an upsetting defeat in 3 matches against the losing side in 1962, Peñarol, with Pelé on the pitch this time. Worth noticing that in 62 and 63 Santos also won the Club World Cup, against European champions Benfica and Milan.
1962 Santos: State, country, continent and world champions.
For some years after 1965, the Brazilian presence in Libertadores was an on-and-off thing, because the country’s federation decided it would be more economically appealling to tour Europe than to play the defunded continental competition. So in 3 years (1966, 1969-70) there were no representatives from Brazil and in one year (1967) Santos declined to play, because the traveling would jeopardize their performance in the national league. So one could say Santos’ 1960s golden generation, which is to many the best team of the world in that decade, didn’t have a continental performance to match their 6 domestic titles and all the deserved international praise it used to get.
After almost going all the way in 2003, but losing to a teenage Carlitos Tevez and his Boca Juniors in the finals, the Santos 2011 Libertadores run was nothing short of amazing. Passing a shaky group stage, the young team led by Neymar and Paulo Henrique Ganso showed mental fortitude to knockout the Mexican America, the Colombian Once Caldas and the Paraguayan Cerro Porteño before facing, once again, Peñarol. In all stages prior to the finals, Santos had drawed one leg and won the other one. The pattern repeated itself, as after a 0-0 in Uruguay, the Brazilian club triumphed with a 2-1 in São Paulo to become South American champions once again, 48 years later.
This dude was already rocking South America with 19 years old.
Palmeiras in Libertadores - Oh boy, here we go again
Palmeiras is a domestic kraken. No other team has won as many national titles as the Italian descendants in green. They have 10 in total, plus 4 other runner-up campaigns. The second on that list, with 8 titles? You guessed, it, Santos.
It’s common place to say that in Brazil, the national league always has at least 10 real contenders. In recent years, this has been changing with a few short dinasties popping up here and there, but througout the 20th century, each team of the “Big Twelve” has had their time to shine. Except from the late 50s to the early 70s. During this period, Palmeiras and Santos staged a two-club dinasty that saw one of them either as champion or runner up in of 15 out of 17 competitions between 1959 and 1972. The influence of these two squads was so great that, some years after this complete dominance of both teams, the Palmeiras-Santos derby was appropriately coined "The Derby of Nostalgia".
Pelé x Ademir da Guia - my grandpa says they were pretty good, and he knows a lot about football.
Palmeiras’ squad from the 60s, with the legendary Ademir da Guia at their helm, found much success in the earliest forms of the Brazilian national league, but disappointed when crossing the border. No Libertadores glory from that era, with runner-up runs in 1961, in a tight 1-0 loss against, you called it, Peñarol; and in 1968, when not even the 11 cup goals by Tupãzinho helped them - a 2-0 defeat in the third match against the Argentinian Estudiantes de La Plata.
But unlike Santos, which had many lost decades after their golden one, only resurfacing to relevance in the last 20 years, Palmeiras was a bit more constant. After a dark 1980s, they returned to proeminence in the 90s with several great squads, mostly due to a very lucrative partnership with Parmalat. Edmundo, Evair, Alex, Oséas, Zinho, Djalminha, Paulo Nunes, César Sampaio, Júnior Baiano - year in, year out, some of the best players in the continent were seen in green. They went all the way in 93 and 94, stopping short in knockout upsets in other years. But in the hall of Libertadores champions of the 90s, you’d see many Brazilian clubs - São Paulo, Grêmio, Cruzeiro, Vasco - but not Palmeiras. They just didn’t have the mindset to win the continent? Bad luck? Pressure?
It changed in 1999, under the command of Luis Felipe Scolari. After winning the domestic cup in 1998, Palmeiras qualified for Libertadores. At the time, the rules were to stack teams from the same country together - so Palmeiras had to face Brazilian champions and fierce rivals Corinthians, as well as Paraguayans Cerro Porteño and Olímpia. After winning the derby in the opening round and a assuring 5-2 triumph against Cerro, three bad games brought suspicion among the ranks - 4-2 defeat against Olimpia, 1-1 against the weak Cerro and a 2-1 defeat against Corinthians. In the last group stage game, a tight 2-1 win against Olimpia and Palmeiras was through.
Ask any Brazilian 90s kid what was the best team of the decade and the answer will be a prompt \"THE PARMALAT PALMEIRAS\" 90% of the time - the other 10% will probably be Corinthians supporters.
In the Round of 16, facing reigning Libertadores champions Vasco da Gama, an easy 4-2 win in the second leg. Then Corinthians again, this time in the quarterfinals. In the first leg, even though the final score marked 2-0 for Palmeiras, the goalkeeper Marcos was undoubtedly the man of the match, with a memorable performance. He had been filling for Palmeiras icon Velloso, who injured himself back in the group stage. In the second leg, Corinthians returned the 2-0, but Marcos once again was heroic, defending a penalty kick by Vampeta and carrying Palmeiras through the semifinals, against River Plate. After losing in Argentina, a 3-0 win in São Paulo with a great performance by a 21-year old Alex. After 31 years, Palmeiras was playing a Libertadores finals, against the Colombian Deportivo Cali. Palmeiras lost the first leg 1-0 again, and won the second 2-1, taking the match to another penalty shootout. With two misses by the Colombian side, Palmeiras was continental champion for the first time in its history.
A historic duel
HYPED UP AS FVCK.
This is a derby that has been played since 1916. Given the historical importance of both clubs in the Brazilian football history, I’m very excited for this match. Both teams flew under the radar of the bloodthirsty Brazilian sports press for the most part of the year (more on this on the next post), but after the semifinals they both seem like good picks for a betting man. From a historical standpoint, Santos is trying to cement their past 20 years of relative national and international success and show everyone they are not a club made of past glories - they often get picked on for not being from the city of São Paulo and not having a big fanbase as their rivals. They’re usually quoted as “every Brazilian’s second team”, a lovable, harmless club to cheer for if yours isn’t playing. Palmeiras, on the other hand, needs to start winning South America and build on their already colossal domestic legacy. And, who knows, maybe end once and for all the general banter in Brazil, that they don’t have a Club World Cup!

Ten Reasons the Browns will Defeat the Kansas City Chiefs

I have plenty to do today, but it can wait. I have a lot on my mind. I have no plan for this and I assure you if you read a stat, it was made up. But here they are: the top ten reasons the Browns will win on Sunday.
1.People Think the Chiefs Have Been Playing with Their Food by Playing Close Games, When Really They are Just Not as in Control As Everyone Thinks
Two years ago, when Mahomes first made his appearance in the league, the Chiefs were blowing people out of the water. Teams didn't know what was hitting them. He won the MVP handily and, if not for Dee Ford placing his hand two inches in the wrong direction, might have won a Super Bowl.
After losing Mahomes in the middle of last year, the team lost its stability, and the defense became a liability. When Mahomes led some heroic comebacks in the playoffs, people were wowed by his superhuman abilities and thought, like a superhero who fishes himself out of deep trouble 2/3rds of the way through the movie, "that was the plan the whole time!"
For specific reasons, the Chiefs are good at stretch-the-field, come-from-behind scenarios. But it's not the plan. The fact is, it's something of an open secret that the Chiefs lack a true identity, but win despite this major shortcoming.

The Chiefs Have Been Pretending to Have a Run Game For Two Years

Andy Reid has had 4 good running backs in his career: Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, and Kareem Hunt. (He also got Jamaal Charles for 1 year.)
Ever since the departure of Kareem Hunt, Reid has been scrambling to find someone to replace him. He certainly has a type: shifty, elusive backs who are good in open space. Since losing Kareem Hunt it has been: Darrel Williams, Damien Williams, Darwin Thompson, and an aged LeSean McCoy. None of them are what he wants. He carouseled through them last year as they got injured, grew fumbling problems, or he just was tired of seeing their faces. At some point he resigned himself to the fact that he didn't have a run game, and he only needed to pretend to have one.
Enter the drafting of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the signing of Le'Veon Bell. Edwards-Helaire has been serviceable, but he is awful between the tackles, and his elusiveness hasn't been reliable. Aside from that, he has an ankle injury and did not practice today. Le'Veon Bell has been pretending to play football as most plays he begins with a hesitation, as though he is trying to remember something he knew in 2017 that he has since forgotten.
The fact is that the Chiefs have limited dimensions as an offense. They depend on the bowling-ballness of Kelce and the speed of their receivers to get open, despite the fact teams mostly do not have to worry about the run game at all.

The Chiefs Have Two Plays and the Rest is Seeing How Long They Can Hold Their Breath Underwater

If you watch Chiefs highlights, they are very different from Browns highlights. One play you'll see is Hill or Hardman on a jet sweep, and the other is a slant or post to Kelce. Those are the only plays they run on time. Because there is so much coverage down the field, Reid ends each playcall into Mahomes' headset saying, "...and if that doesn't work, I'm sure you'll think of something."
Which is what happens 75% of the time, according to my own feelings and beliefs. Mahomes is the best scrambler in the league and each play lasts about as long as a Youtube ad you can't skip. This is where the Chiefs make their money. Mahomes has such vision, scrambling ability, and unique-kind-of-pass ability, he usually figures something out. And Hill, Hardman, and Kelce each have unique advantages that they usually outrun the coverage.
But this also means that the Chiefs offense is built on tightrope walking. We are so often impressed with Mahomes because of the ravine on either side of the play; there are so many ways things could go wrong. You can say "But it's Mahomes! It never does go wrong!" This isn't true, he just usually makes up for his mistakes. He took an awful sack vs Miami, the longest in a billion years in the NFL, and threw what should have been a game-ending dropped pick vs Atlanta in his last action of the season. While you're still a hero, everyone only remembers the hits.

Their Defense Is Nothing To Write Home About

And that's why I'm not going to write you about it. Their defense only won them 2 games this year, their first game vs. Justin Herbert, and the game vs. Atlanta. Their defense is quite similar to ours, except that their rushers have been underachieving. Given their offense, their defense has been good enough.

They Are Super Bowl Hungover And Have Nothing to Play For In Their Hearts

In a documentary on his coaching career Bill Belichick said many people aim to scale the mountain; the tough thing, though, is once you have scaled it to stay at the top. It's a very rare accomplishment.
So are the Chiefs going to stay on top of the mountain? So far people have assumed that the Chiefs have been "playing with their food" and waiting to be really good until the playoffs.
But many people have also noted that the Chiefs often play "bored." They have coasted on their elite talent - their speed, Kelce's biceps, and Mahomes rain dance scrambling drills. It's like how I know how to make a really good sweet potato curry. Once I nailed that recipe, I just figured "why not do this every time? It's fun." Now I look like a sweet potato curry addict.
Not to get political, but I heard one (conservative) analyst say that this year that the incumbent lost because, "The first rule of elections is you never run the same campaign twice." Right now, the Chiefs are doing just that. The Titans just ran the same campaign twice, and they found out what happens. The Chiefs bear an eerily similar feeling to the 2011 Packers, 15-1 the season after their Super Bowl win, who came out and nose dived in the divisional round to the Giants. The Chiefs will not look as bad as the Packers did that game, but there is a real question of who will have the fire in this game.

People Were Busy Monitoring their Ebay Bidding Wars and Failed to Notice That Baker Mayfield Has Arrived

Football is so much a week-by-week thing, and our culture is so oriented toward hot takes and short videos, that people have completely missed the big picture arc of Baker Mayfield. While he still has flaws to clean up, they currently act only as a smokescreen to cover the fact that Baker Mayfield is now a force.
Mayfield's hyper-energetic playstyle and laser-zip passes earned him the Heisman trophy in 2017. By 2018, he showed this playstyle can work the exact same way in the NFL, as he gunned the ball wherever he wanted in 2018. A glimpse of what was to come.
In 2019, the wheels fell off the bus because, for the first time in his life, Baker didn't have an adequate structure around him. People fell into the delusion of thinking he was the magician, that his Heisman-ness and 2018 machismo could overcome the force of hyper-attentive defensive planning. It was a total disaster.
Because 2019 was gleefully received by people who rooted for Baker's downfall, associating him with the jocks they had hated in high school, the narrative of him being a bust reached escape velocity. From Browns' fans perspective, their 2018 hope was quickly enveloped by their long-tenured cynicism about the organization. In the off-season, his name was left on the back porch like a crate of used milk bottles to be picked up.
Then something happened. What Browns fans discovered, and the rest of Baker's bitter audience was displeased to remember, is there are about half a dozen young offensive minds who have emerged from Shanahan/Kubiak coaching tree who are a blink ahead of everyone on offensive scheming. With one of these directing Baker, he has adapted his raw college skills into a precision passing game that can take a game over. Because the first half of the year we were primarily a run team while Baker learned the system, and then we hit a spate of bad weather, people have missed this emerging phenomenon: the Browns are now a team that flows through Baker Mayfield, who has a scheme which he wields with growing dexterity by the week.
The numbers are there, from PFF grades to point totals, and people are wondering if it's real. But if you pay attention to the big picture, you know it's real. This is the real Baker Mayfield, and he's rolling into Kansas City on Sunday afternoon.

Batman and Superman

Where on the Chiefs team there is a gaping vacuum, the Browns have situated their best playmakers. While the Chiefs have the better overall receiving corps, the Browns' backfield packs the punch and versatility that Andy Reid can only dream of having. This gives the Browns' offense a naturally balancing aspect to it that the Chiefs offense lacks. Because the Browns' run threat is so real, it can never truly be ignored by a defense. When Stefanski gets what he wants early in a game, he is able to play defenses like a fiddle between the run and the pass.

The Browns Offensive Line

Billy Callahan is back on the sidelines, and the starters to the best offensive line in football are right on time. While they can so often be invisible, this game might truly come down to the differences between the offensive lines. If the run game gets going, and Baker has time to pick his target, while on the other hand KC has its hands full of Myles Garrett, the story of the game might be written right there.
It fits in well with this that the Browns are playing with heads full of steam, and I'm betting on our blockers in this game to set the tone early and often.

Kevin Stefanski, in a State of Ultimate Zen, Used Watching the Game On Sunday to Realize 486 New Things That He Could Use on Offense This Week

Much ink has been spilled about Andy Reid's record after a bye, which we can only presume comes because he looks at his play sheet and draws a squiggle in a new direction. Excellent work, Andy. While Andy was using his time in a theoretical head space, Stefanski was gifted an opportunity to self-scout and reach offensive enlightenment from the comfort of his own basement.
The truth is that, as Browns fans, we know that Stefanski has been switching things up each week. The best teams evolve throughout the season, and his usage of his players has been varied and dynamic depending on what the game calls for. While Reid has a proven track record, Stefanski is the wild card. While I am somewhat afraid he may overthink things, I think he retains the edge in playing his best saved tricks. With Callahan and AVP getting the ole band back together, they will be able to take their absolute best shot to upset the defending champs.

The New Browns Have Arrived, They are Angry, and They Are Playing with Nothing to Lose

"Just the 'Same Old Browns'! Just the 'Same Old Browns'!"
At the beginning of the season I wrote about the start of a Browns Way, that secret ingredient that touches each player and personnel member as they enter an organization, one that plants the seeds of success in them from the very start. While I saw various things pointing to the start of a Browns Way early in the season, I could never have dreamed to see it erupt into being like we did this past week in Pittsburgh, within a storm of events that not even the worst Browns' cynic could have foreseen.
The real evidence of the Browns Way for this season has been not a presence, but a silence. People across the nation woke up Monday quite surprised to find the Browns were in the 2nd round of the playoffs, and that's for a very specific reason: no one has been talking about us this year. Comparing this to last year, what this indicates is a lack of chaos. Every week last year - and for the last 20 years - it's been "this guy did this, this guy said that" and a maelstrom of drama would be created just to fill the headlines for a week. It emotionally exhausts the fans, and it definitely exhausts the players. Jeff Garcia said we were the most negative media culture he had ever been a part of.
You could definitely tell the change in Baker's interviews. Last year they were extremely tense, and a headline would usually be born of them. This year his entire composure changed; his focus was inward, on the team, and he wasn't going to go in for the shenanigans again this year. He was now protective of his team in a whole new way.
The focus that Stefanski has instilled in his team on the task at hand, while invisible to most eyes all year, has now been confirmed in the most dramatic of ways. With almost no change in his demeanor at all, he announced to the team he would not be able to coach them in the biggest game of the year. Suddenly, every player faced a choice, a reflection point: "Do I really believe in what we've been doing? Do I really believe in this team?"
We know the results. With their backs against the wall, outmanned, and understaffed, the Browns played the most physical, impassioned game they had all year. What we were happy to see on Sunday was not just that the Browns were winning, but also how they were winning. We knew this team was playing with confidence, determination, and moxie - and that they were doing it for each other. In a mysterious way, I think we witnessed the real life presence of the Browns Way, a focus and determination that doesn't change based on the circumstances.
Everyone who paid any attention could see: these were not the same old Browns.
I think Kansas City is going to need some luck this Sunday, if they are to stand a chance.

Here from 49ers to say you got a good coach, and if they follow 49ers blueprint this is how it's gonna go...

Hey everyone, congrats on the hiring of Robert Saleh. I'm a transplant who lives in Manhattan actually and I'm happy I will get to see this man's beautiful shiny bald head for the next few seasons getting PUMPED on the sidelines.
49ers Fans General Feelings on Saleh:
BACKGROUND: It took a few years but we all came around to him. In 2017 a lot of people were willing to forgive how bad this team was. They started 1-9 and came into the year with a complete teardown, like 40+ new players signed or drafted. It was still disappointing and Saleh started to get some heat, but the truth is the defense was a joke. A miraculous 5-0 finish after Garoppolo came over in a trade gave everyone rose-colored glasses. The next season, the team was hyped, jimmy tore his ACL in wk 3, injuries all over the field were an issue in fact (a problem each season seemingly) and they finished 4-12 and the fanbase wanted him GONE having seen very little progress on the defensive side of the ball. Kyle Shanahan and players like Richard Sherman stuck by his decision making and schemes, and a year later they proved to be right. Nick Bosa single-handedly changed the defense. I cannot tell you how good he is. The ability to get pressure without blitzing changed everything and the defense in 2018 had historically low turnovers (2 INT all season) suddenly went to 6th the next year and were dominant in terms of YPG, expected yards, etc.
2020 showed his growth as a coach. No Bosa, Dee Ford, Solomon Thomas, Sherman, or really any healthy DB including FS Jaquiski Tartt, for most of the season, guys literally signing off the street and other teams practice squad (including a pick swap to get Jordan Willis) and I swear you've never seen a group of guys play harder. Kerry Hyder jr off the scrap heap had a career season. Jason Verrett was solid after 4 years basically on IR. Even when they were out of it, this talent-deficient squad played their ass off. You see that kind of shit and your opinion on tanking changes. I've heard people like Mike Lombardi say "he only plays cover 3." He didn't watch one 49ers football game this year. Saleh played a lot more quarters, man-blitz, and was truly a lot more varied than we've seen in years past, generating pressure in new and exotic ways. Now did they get steamrolled here and there, yeah, but overall they were in more games than they deserved to be and a lot of that is because of Saleh/Shanahan getting guys to outproduce their talent. In a laughably bad season that seemingly went from bad to worse each week in terms of costly injuries he was clearly motiving guys who had no business playing as well as they did. After a rocky start, he has become one of the most beloved coaches I can remember. You will love his veins popping out of his neck and his emotion on the sideline. Congrats on the hire.
My 2 cents on whats to come:
I'll be honest. I don't know Joe Douglas' tendencies, i simply don't follow non-Frank-Gore-Jets news that closely. HOWEVER if they follow the 49ers blueprint, here's what to expect. Coming out of 2016 the 49ers were the laughing stock of the league "Cleveland West" was thrown around A LOT. We'd just been through a string of horrible seasons and Adam Gase-like years of ineptitude with Jim Tomsula, then Chip Kelly. John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan came in and got rid of everyone that didn't believe in their "Culture," which was almost everyone.
I always thought that term "culture" was bullshit football speak, but when the team has a good culture, you see what it means. Suddenly they give everything even when the team sucks, the character of the guys shines through. It's really honestly noticeable. This year they had every reason to give up, but they played incredibly hard on both sides, but you see how much it meant to Saleh.
Saleh will try to identify those culture guys. I would expect a massive roster turnover. I think Richard Sherman is coming over as a result. He's lost a step, or 10. But he's a coach on the field and one of those culture guys who will begin to change the locker room. He played safety at times for us this year and he has said he would like to finish his career playing safety, we'll see. If he wants one more big contract, the jets might be willing to give him the 3 years he wants, but if he's playing for a 'chip, i don't know who will give him that. But, with the Jets cap room that's an easy guy to identify unless he wants to stay west to be close to family or something. As evidence, 49ers brought in guys like Pierre Garcon at the beginning of the rebuild, even though you're like: "why?... just play the young guys and develop." Then he turned out to be a fan favorite based on how hard he played and you understand 2-3 years later why they brought in vets like him to be an example to the younger players even when they were nowhere near competent.
In terms of your 2nd overall pick... If they did what SF did, they'll punt on QB and trade back. 49ers traded back with Bears —who took Trubisky—and we drafted Solomon Thomas. With hindsight, there's surely regret not taking Mahomes or Watson, but here we are. But it is mine and most people who actually cover the team's consensus that they were never drafting a QB no matter what because they were 3 years away—that turned out true. It's easy to see the Jets trading back and getting the best pass rusher available to pair with Williams. Saleh clearly sees pressure as the #1 paramount strategy on defense. His moniker is All Gas No Brakes (which hopefully he takes to NY). Outside of Sherman, the 49ers have generally not put many resources into high-priced DBs, but instead have used 3 1st rd picks on DL and 1 on OL.
There's already reports they're keeping Sam Darnold. This might be a smoke screen, this might actually be true. Niners rolled into Shanahan/Saleh/Lynch first year 2017 with Brian Hoyer and drafted CJ Beathard in the 3rd rd. The plan was to sign Kirk Cousins and reunite him with Kyle before Jimmy G was gifted by the Hoodie in the middle of '17.
If i were a betting guy, i might expect the same for the Jets and they aim to draft or sign a guy next year with the insane cap space they'll have. They'll also likely be bad again and will have a chance at a QB in '21. The caveat here is Mike LaFleur is coming over too. If they do hang onto that pick for a QB, it will be Zach Wilson. The offense they run at BYU is very similar to the zone run/west coast scheme Shanahan and so many others run now. Just watching him play in the bowl game this past year, it was a lot of the same concepts the 49ers/packers/Rams like to run. There's a reason the 49ers fans want him so bad, and it's because he's tailor-made for the system you will now run. But again, because they have time, I do think there's a very good chance they punt this year, collect assets and picks and go more the Miami/49ers route and year 1 concentrate on culture building and setting a tone for years to come and also build in the trenches.
Those are my thoughts with a bit of context. Good luck, the Jets have now rocketed up to my #2 team... on par with whatever team is playing the fucking Seahawks that week.
I leave you with this supercut of Saleh getting HYPED. J-E-T-S! https://www.reddit.com/49ers/comments/dhk0qc/for_your_use_saleh_is_pumped_supercut_gif/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Random Projection/Breakdown at our Offseason

Alright, the coaching roster came out and i'm bored to the point of completely losing my mind in quarantine....so time to do a random positional breakdown of the team and make my guess what we will do at each position this coming offseason.
Overall Offense: This is going to be incredibly interesting. You marry the Shannahan and Peyton offensive schemes with the opportunity to create something pretty unique. Lots of quick passing game, and the ability to set up some big plays down the field. What i'm really hoping is that this plays off on the OL, because Shannahan's offense is notorious for making OL's look better than they are with scheme (Brandon Thorn has a few incredible pieces on this at trenchwarfare).
QB:
This one's pretty obvious, Herbert is the guy. I doubt we do anything here, but we could add another backup type. Depends on what we see out there. What should be interesting is what Shane Day brings to the game. He's previously been an Ass. OL coach with Big Shanny and Bill Callahan, which should help Herbert really grasp the protection scheme (something that Cristobal really made a focus for Herbert his Sr. Year, so he already has the basics).
RB:
This one is pretty set as well. Ekeler is the top guy, Ballage IMO is back on an RFA tender after he played really solidly behind a terrible OL. Kelley didn't have a great year, but I think he'll get a fresh start and be a really solid complimentary piece. He's the kind of decisive, downhill guy that could play well in a Shannahan Scheme, if that's what we end up running. Justin Johnson is a really unique back, but his unique body style also leads to a lot of injuries, but he's effective when healthy. Bradwell is also going to be back, who was very interesting last year. I'd bet we add a UDFA as competition, since we have a knack for finding guys there. Couldn't tell you anything other than the new RB coach from Iowa seems really interesting and seems like he did a good job.
WR:
This is the first interesting position. The big question is what do we do with Mike Williams. He's a really tough one to place. I could see an extension because the team really likes him, but he doesn't have the cleanest fit in either offensive scheme, and doesn't fit as well with Herbert, as he's less natural of a back shouldejump ball thrower like Rivers was. I'd be interesting to see if we just save the money and move on with some othecheaper options, or take advantage of a good draft class with a guy like Moore/Stewart that can compliment the offense better. Again, absolutely nothing to say about the new coach, I know absolutely nothing about him.
TE:
Henry is a big target, and basically needs to be back. Without him, it will get a little more interesting. We're going to have to go with some patchwork. Could see someone like Everett get signed but this is probably a pretty decent TE class so it'd be another thing to add to the draft list. Koger is ???.
OL:
Here's where I hopefully can start to shed some actual light unlike the last few groups. I touched on the Shannahan scheme earlier, that makes the OL's job easier. With the Saints, they've brought in premium player after premium player. I think they've spent 4 first rounders in the last 5-6 years on OL. So hopefully that rubs off on them. Frank Smith is very interesting. He's been a TE coach the last 5 years, but really has his roots in the OL, under Ingles/Kromer (and while he didn't directly work with him as an OL coach, worked with Roushar) in NO, and in college. The OL he coached with the Saints was really IOL dominant. Nicks, Evans, and Grubbs made up some of the best IOL's in league history. Surratt worked under Munchauk and had the same philosophy where the IOL dominates games (Decastro, Pouncey, Foster), and Shane Day's OL experience under Callahan (and if your counting that means being assistants for or having relationships with all 4 of the top 4 OL coaches in the league right now) who doesn't descriminate with bringing in talent. I'm really curious to see what comes of this OL. I think there's going to be a heavy emphasis on versatile, really talented IOL, and put less of an emphasis on OT and looking towards more scheme fit at OT. Lots of Gap and outside zone schemes in the run game make sense.
Personnel wise, we have 3 open holes, and potentially 4 if we cut Turner (who I actually think could fit very well if we go with the old saints scheme). Shane Day has relationships with both Trent Williams and Schreff from his time in Washington, Denzelle Good had an EXCELLENT year for the Raiders with Smith at both RT and LG, Villanueva and Feiller have experience with Sarrett who I think did a very good job with some young talent like Dotson, despite the unit not totally coming together as a group. Guys like Landon Dickerson (particularly I think his intellect and love for football is going to really connect with Staley and this staff, and I think he's one of the best IOL to come out not named Nelson in while), Trey Smith, Wyatt Davis among a few others makes this IOL class really good. But they both tend to like quick, aggressive, people movers at OG, and longemore athletic OT's who can come take over doubles and operate in space. There's a lot of ways to fix this, but it's not going to be easy. All of those guys listed could fit. I'm cautiously optimistic that this is the team that brings the OL together, and I bet it starts with both some money and some serious draft capital going towards the OL.
Defense:
We all know that Staley brings a unique defense, he mixes and matches front, and probably better than everyone, he takes his star players, and puts them in positions to impact the game. He brings added versatility to Fangio's already really impressive defensive base.
DL:
What is going to be kind here is 2 gapping. This defense lives and dies by big, long, and incredibly powerful DL. Jay Rodgers, and Giff Smith are both guys who have done an amazing job of developing and focusing bigtime length and strength guys. Eddie Goldman/Roy Roberston-Harris/Akiem Hicks/John Jenkins/DaQuan Jones, are guys they've developed between the two of them. I think we see another one of those guys added, but I also think that we see bigtime growth from Tillery this year. He's the exact kind of guy that can thrive in this scheme, and is the kind of player that is typically a late bloomer (Jones, Armstead etc). There aren't a lot of great options in the draft with that skillset this year, but Payton Turner makes sense. Ther'es some guys like Roy Roberston Harris, Jenkins, Jones, Suh, Wolfe, and Mike Pennel would all make some sense. I think this is the type of signing we'll make that will surprise some people this year.
OLB:
Bosa is going to be interesting here. We're going to move him around but I think he'll mostly be on the edge, or out wide but attacking OG's (the way he set Donald up to do, playing him at the 5/7 T, but stacking an edge over him and having him attack the OG). Beyond that, I think we'll need a longer edge rusher. There's some interesting guys in the draft, including pass rushers like Rousseau/Jaelan Phillips and some other long, lean pass rushers that can win with their hands. One thing that may be very interesting here....is Wilhoite was on the 49ers, and Staley being a Fangio protege and having those connections, is Aldon Smith would be a VERY interesting guy to pair with Bosa. I expect a draft pick though.
ILB:
I think that we are pretty set here, White/Tranquill/Perryman and obviously Murray are perfectly fit for the ILB role in this defense. Cant imagine us needing much more here. Wilhoite is very interesting. He was a commander of the best Fangio defense back in his 5 years with the 9ers from '11-16. Playing with Bowman, Boreland, Willis and KJ Wright, Wagner, among others with the year he was with the Seahawks. I'm excited about what he'll get done with this LB group, and I think Perryman stays. Another thing to add to this, is that this front group has a chance to be EERILY similar to that 49ers defense from those years. Justin smith is different, but can play very similar roles as Bosa. Linval and Sopoaga, Willis/Bowman/Boreland/Wilhoite and Murray/Perryman/Tranquil/White. Biggest thing missing is a long, athletic EDGE guy, and some length and strength secondary DL.
S:
I don't have much here. The most interesting piece is what we do with the FS spot. Staley LOVES interchangeable S's, and Jenkins is perfect for that role, but does he want to reinvent this defense as its own entity, which he seems like he does, or does he want to bring in someone with familiarity with him that can help guide the defense like Johnson. I think that's the question that this one will answer, do we stick with Jenkins, go with Johnson, or go an entirely different direction with his own hand picked drafted player.
CB:
This is going to entirely hinge on what he sees in Hayward. Harris is his guy, both Hill and Staley love him. Michael Davis is probably a no brainer to be back, out of anyone not named Henry. Hayward would make a lot of sense with the way that they play some mixed coverages, as he's not a man guy, but he doesn't have to be. We very much so could see an athletic cover corner here. I don't know as much about this as I do the offensive/defensive front, but this could either be not a need, or a big need depending on how Staley/Ansley see this group. Just something to note, between Alabama, and Tennessee, Ansley probably knows/recruited or played against every good SEC CB, so that will likely help in the drafting process, and probably has good knowledge of the OL/offenses from the SEC. I'm encouraged as he did a good job at Bama and got some pretty good results with a mixed group in Oakland, particularly with Rashaan Melvin. He seems to like longer guys who can stick some in man coverage. I haven't done a lot of scouting here so I really don't know who to target there. Bouye would make a ton of sense with Hill's connection if we wanted to go that way. It would be interesting to see if he wants to try to turn around someone like Kevin King, or that sort of reclamation project.
One thing to Note here, there's a lot of college coaches that have a lot of experience from all over the country, which means that we'll definitely have some insight in a lot of different college programs and guys.
Well that's what I got. A bunch of random targets thrown out, and random, pointless connections made that are almost guaranteed to be all entirely wrong. But thanks for reading my random source of quarantine entertainment.

Chaz's Coordinator Candidate Short-List

With Arthur Smith likely gone and a gaping hole in the middle of the defense this year, I've done a lot of digging on guys who I think would make successful coordinators in this team. I've done the leg-work so you don't have to. J-Rob, if you're out there, take notes (jk I'm amateur af).
Offensive Coordinators

~~Mike McDaniel~~~~: SF RCG 17-present, ATL OA 15-16, CLE WR 14, WAS WR 13, WAS OA 11-12~~
- ~~Why He Works~~: Obviously Mike is going to come in and keep playing to the strengths of this team. He's helped Shanahan execute his run-first, play-action, bootleg heavy offense that's made him so consistently successful the last few years. He's been able to turn out productive rushers that you wouldn't think like Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida, Jeff Wilson, etc. Still, he has experience across the offense having been a WR coach and OA at several different places. I'd bet on him to have a good idea on how to marry the run and the pass.
- ~~Why He Doesn't~~: If you wanted to use what I consider his strengths against him, he's only been a run-game coordinator. Never an OC or PCG, and under Shanny's thumb in SF. He's bounced around a lot (though at every stop he's been with Kyle Shanahan). He's only 37; he isn't the youngest OC in the league, but he's not a seasoned vet either.

EDIT: He gone

Shane Waldron: LAR PCG 18-present, LAR TE 17, WAS OQC 16, UMass OL 14-15
- Why He Works: Waldron is extremely similar to McDaniel in many ways, just pass-oriented instead of the run. He's spent the last 3 years deputizing McVay in running the show with the Rams pass game, a team that got solid results out of a so-so QB in Jared Goff especially in 18, but this year as well. The Rams have had a very successful, balanced offense with him there. Similar to McDaniel, he has experience learning under a prodigious HC talent and has coached TEs, OL (college), and been a QC. That wealth of experience is so huge in translating to being an OC.
- Why He Doesn't: Similar but opposite reasons to McDaniel. He's worked under a HC that is very hands-on, so we don't know how much he really does. His top level experience has only been in the last 4 seasons, and he's very young (41). Even if he's successful in helping Tannehill be successful, the lack of experience in the run game could be a red flag.
Phil Longo: UNC OC/QB 19-present, Miss OC/QB 17-18, SHSU OC/QB 14-16, Slippery Rock OC/QB/WR 11-13
- Why He Works: Phil Longo is one of the hottest names in college football. As good as Litrell as been at UNT, he's done it at the P5 level against solid ACC competition (5th nationally). He's got experience across the board, particularly at OC, QB, and WR positions. He led North Carolina to having PFFs two highest graded RBs this year, and potentially from nowhere to both be Day 2 picks (Michael Carter, Javontae Williams). And on top of that, has brought a contender out of left field in Sam Howell to be the odds-on favorite for #1 pick in the NFL draft next year at QB. He's blown away the competition at every level and could be ready for the next step.
- Why He Doesn't: He's only a college coach. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. But it's a different game entirely. And though he's sufficiently experienced overall, he doesn't have direct connections with the run game in his coaching history. That's something he could potentially mitigate with the right hire, though.
Seth Littrell: N Texas HC 16-present, UNC AHC/OC/TE 14-15, IU OC/FB/TE 12-13, UArizona OC/RB/TE 09-11
- Why He Works: Littrell may not pass the eye test on first glance, but he's a current college HC with a ton of experience. Similar to the other two, he has worked with a litany of positions but in his case, he's worked with all and ran the show. He runs one of the most explosive and balanced offenses (8th nationally) in college football and has been in coaching for a long time. His offenses are elite but his defenses are horrible, but we don't need him on defense. His poor record as a HC (31-31) likely has him on the hot seat, and I could see him jumping ship for the right opportunity.
- Why He Doesn't: First and foremost, he's a college coach. And on top of that, he's a college coach of a G5 team. He has no NFL experience. As mentioned, he has had a poor record as a HC. He doesn't have many red flags, but the ones he has are pretty substantial and generally a barrier in the NFL.
Doug Pederson: PHI HC 16-20, KC OC 13-15, PHI QB 11-12, PHI OQC 09-10
- Why He Works: There can be no claim that this man isn't experienced. He's a literal SB winning HC who has had a ton of success until the last two years. You can potentially parlay his faults into questionable roster-building tactics by GM Howie Roseman. As both a coach and coordinator, he's seen success with churning sub-par RB and QB talent into wins for the most part. He's had his clear moments of genius, no question. Everybody knows the skinny on this guy.
- Why He Doesn't: I won't belabor the point. Everyone knows. Carson Wentz has clearly regressed. Many claim that he's lost without Reich. His receiver cupboard has been bare, but also looked horrible. He's plenty old enough, but with a successful season likely gets scooped up instantly. Some could say that he's had plenty of his own input on his roster, and they've failed. They got worse each year following the SB. You guys get it.

Defensive Coordinators

Jim Leonhard: Wisc DC 17-present, Wisc DB 16
- Why He Works: Pure. Dominance. Wisconsin has for years been the most lights out defense in CFB. Though the numbers long were attributed to conservative offensive playstyle, they persisted even through the Dairy Raid experiment this year. 1st ranked nationally in CFB. Has gotten incredible performance out of so-so athletes from TJ Watt (he's a higher end athlete), Zack Baun, Chris Orr, etc. Finds guys and puts them in the best position to win every rep. Has experience with DBs and is a former one himself in the NFL despite being originally a walk-on. Tough minded, physical player and comes through in his coaching. Has helped produced elite defenses and top 10 teams despite pretty poor recruiting, historically.
- Why He Doesn't: College. That's really the only reason. He's a little young, he's only been coaching for 5 years. But it's basically just that he doesn't have NFL experience.
Phil Parker: Iowa DC/DB 12-present, Iowa DB 99-11, Toledo DB 88-99
- Why He Works: I mean first, holy experience Batman. He's been at the same place for 22 years and only 2 places for 32. Talk about stability. Still, he's helped coach Kirk Ferentz vastly outkick their coverage and produce phenomenal defenses and NFL players despite relatively poor recruiting for decades. Coached Iowa to the 13th best defense nationally this year. Coach of Amani Hooker and Desmond King as well getting insane production out of lesser talents in Josh Jackson, Greg Mabin, Josey Jewell, AJ Epenesa. I could seriously go on and on. An incredible coach who understands positional football.
- Why He Doesn't: He's played a ton of zone in Iowa and I'm not sure how much he knows or believes in man. You have to do that in the NFL. Has only coached college. Is a little on the older side, but not nearly close to retiring I wouldn't think. Has been on staff for some recent tumultuous stuff with players there, but haven't seen his name specifically mentioned. But yea, mostly college.
Karl Dunbar: PIT DL 18-present, Bama DL 16-17, BUF DL 15, NYJ DL 12-14, MIN DL 06-11
- Why He Works: Karl Dunbar has been wildly successful at one thing more than just about anybody around: dominating at the line of scrimmage. He's had plenty of talent to work with but he's helped the 3rd best defense in football account for 56 sacks this year, highest in the league. He's a seasoned veteran who's been with many successful franchise the last several years.
- Why He Doesn't: As incredible as some of his DLs have been, that's all he knows. He's never stepped outside of that purview in his long career. That's really his only red flag, but it's a big one. He would be a hire where it would be very critical to make the right moves for LB and DB coaches.
Larry Foote: TB OLB 19-present, ARI LB 15-16, ARI Asst LB 14
- Why He Works: A young star in the making who has shot up the ranks in the last few years. Joining forces with the incredible defensive mind in Todd Bowles, he's been instrumental in reviving the TB pass rush from the dead helping coach Shaq Barrett into the NFL's sack leader in '19. TB had the 6th highest rated defense (surprising but true) and were 6th in sacks. A very successful former player, he's likely to command a big presence in the locker room. Joined PIT only a couple years after Vrabel left and they're surely familiar.
- Why He Doesn't: He's young (40) and relatively inexperienced. It's good that he's at least coached the ILBs but he's not branched out much. Relatively unknown as a defensive assistant and would also likely need the right moves around him to be truly successful.
Ryan Nielsen: NO DL 17-present, NCSU DL/RGC 13-16, NIU Co-DC/DL 11-12
- Why He Works: If you haven't noticed, there's a theme on my short lists. Nielsen has coached great defensive lines that have gotten to the QB. 3rd last year in sacks and 8th this year, he's worked with mid-round picks like Trey Hendrickson and great technicians in Cam Jordan to find success (i.e, can work with less "talent"). He has a little bit of experience in coordinating with NCSU and NIU but is largely a DL guy. He's helped NO to the 4th best defense in the league this year.
- Why He Doesn't: More of the same. He's young and prior to NO, his experience was more college oriented. He's branched out more than the two former, but not by a lot. Would also need to bring quality hires at DB coach to get the most out.
Matt Burke: PHI DL/RCG 20, PHI DA 19, MIA DC 17-18, MIA LB 16, CIN LB 14-15, DET LB 09-13, TEN DQC 05-08
- Why He Works: Just 44 years young, he's been around the block. He's coached every level of the front 7 including running the show. Has helped sustain Philadelphia's DL success including 49 sacks this season (3rd in the league). Team defense was average this year but his unit did their job. Has familiarity with the Titans organization and was part of the staff for the incredible roster we built before leaving after the great '08 season. Dartmouth educated, if that means anything.
- Why He Doesn't: After at one point being considered a great up and comer, his star has faded a little. Stint in Miami didn't end up with the 3rd worst defense before he and Gase were both let go. Part of the group that mis-utilized Minkah. Will have questions around whether he's turned a corner and ready for another shake with a non-cokehead coach, or if DL is where he should be. Regardless of whether he's a DC, I see no reason he wouldn't make a phenomenal hire as a DL coach.

Titan up.

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